ATL: HERMINE - Models

[PTrackerLA]

I'm taking all these runs with a grain of salt until I actually see a Depression or TS designated but seems to be an evolution of the 12z run and fits with other modeling (sans GFS after day 5.) It's interesting to see the intensity it retains/regains while hugging the SE coast. Would be a high impact event in this scenario. Relieved to see Louisiana out of play with the 00z suite, we just can't. Night all.

[Blinhart]

I'm not taking any of these models serious until we get an organized system, there are too many variables going on right now for there to be any consensus until there is genesis and sampling of the GoM.

[Hammy]

full EC is 977mb into the Big Bend

So nearly Cat 2 vs mid-range TS with the GFS: the battle of the models begins again.

[KWT]

Track wise it is certainly a ECM win, but no doubts the GFS has thus far done a decent enough job with this systems strength.

Of course, most models are getting this going as it goes through the straits, so those models are going to be correct things should get going in the next 12-24hrs.

[Nimbus]

Still lots of shear this morning so not much overnight organization like WXman57 said.
Models are running a little closer but Tampa is still in the cone, at least the HWRF has dropped the intensity from 943 to 960's.
The big ULL that has been tracking west may start to lift out and move NW today and that will effect the forecast.
I'll be happy if the NHC can give us an accurate track at 72 hours before landfall.





Edit: to add forecast reasoning, the models still don't agree on how much of a weakness there will be from ULL/91L to its northeast. The GFS at 72 hours is a reasonable example that the NHC might take under consideration.



Once 99L exits it may put some kinks in the jet stream to send the next few pouches fishing.

[tolakram]

Animations from the overnight runs.

[tolakram]

HWRF (remember, only reliable once a storm has formed)

[NDG]

So now the 06z has 99L meandering around over northern FL for a few days after making landfall over the big bend area, and the drama continues.

[ronjon]

So now the 06z has 99L meandering around over northern FL for a few days after making landfall over the big bend area, and the drama continues.

Yeah don't know what to make of GFS but it DID correctly forecast intensity with 99L.

[NDG]

So now the 06z has 99L meandering around over northern FL for a few days after making landfall over the big bend area, and the drama continues.

Yeah don't know what to make of GFS but it DID correctly forecast intensity with 99L.

First round: The Euro won with no development of 99L over the central Atlantic.
Second round: The GFS won with no development of 99L over the Bahamas.
Third & final round:???????

I guess we shall see

[KWT]

A bit hasty there ronjon, most of the models to be fair didn't really start to develop 99L till now, of course if this is still a weak system by 60hrs time then we can say those models busted and GFS was spot on.

Stubborn systems like this usually tend to develop eventually.

[tolakram]

HWRF 6Z, slightly different solution

[ronjon]

Oh KWT I agree it'll probably eventually develop. Not to quibble but I think most models were developing this earlier in the Bahamas except GFS. It seemed to peg the hostile shear conditions correctly.

[GlennOBX]

00Z run of one model and 06Z run of another model showed a "new" storm coming into the frame from the southeast. The model run posted a couple of posts above this one doesn't. Would it be unusual for THAT many invests/storms to be active at the same time? And, what were those other model runs even seeing? Sorry if this is considered "chatter", please delete if needed.

[tolakram]

Please stop the off topic posts in here, they will be removed. You are welcome to have these types of discussion in the 99L discussion thread. Thanks.

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z running

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

More defined this run, for what that's worth.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_44.png

12 NAM-WRF weak, but more in central Gulf

[tolakram]