ATL: HERMINE - Models

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p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3521 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:00 pm

GFS: Getting Freaking Silly
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3522 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:29 pm

HWRF has shifted south with hurricane force winds into Tampa Bay Area (Pinellas County). Also it is showing a stronger system.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3523 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:42 pm

12Z Euro initialized http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=114
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3524 Postby Bigpapa » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:43 pm

I live in Pinellas County not liking this run one bit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3525 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:46 pm

HWRF animation as it hits West-Central Florida... :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3526 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:49 pm

12Z Euro init

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3527 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:54 pm

Euro +24
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3528 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:55 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3529 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:57 pm

Looks like all the models are initiating too far East.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3530 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:01 pm

Euro +48

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3531 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:01 pm

Weaker this run, so far.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3532 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:01 pm

Wow Euro quite a bit weaker a bit more west than the 00Z. Vorticity looks to be getting stretched out between 48 to 72 hours...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3533 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:09 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3534 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:10 pm

Euro +72

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3535 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:15 pm

Completely different solution, all strung out.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3536 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:16 pm

Note also how the vorticity of TD Eight gets caught up in this. Might be a BS flag run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3537 Postby drezee » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:20 pm

tolakram wrote:Note also how the vorticity of TD Eight gets caught up in this. Might be a BS flag run.

The operational run has been all over the place. I am waiting for the ensembles...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3538 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm

They need to run the drone and do some dropsondes around the Gulf so they can put that info into the models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3539 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm

looks like a legit run. Shows a synoptic scale trough over the Eats Coast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3540 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:23 pm

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