Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[GeneratorPower]

The most important point of the run is that it's a Carribean runner. That's pretty well established by day 6-7 of the run which is a reasonably accurate timeframe. Once it gets that low it's trouble regardless of final landfall point.

[abajan]

I'm not convinced this will exit Africa at the high latitude shown by the models and TWO.

[LarryWx]

If this more southerly track trend continues, maybe even folks as far south as abajan in Barbados will need to deal with this though that remains to be seen.

[TheStormExpert]

Once again development is delayed on the 18z GFS, wouldn't surprise me to see development dropped as a whole on one of tomorrow's runs.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Monday night or Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be
favorable for development of this system later this week while it
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

Position of Pouch 25L.Another 24-36 hours before it emerges the coast.

[abajan]

If this more southerly track trend continues, maybe even folks as far south as abajan in Barbados will need to deal with this though that remains to be seen.

Even if it passes 1000 miles to our north, there's still a chance we may get blasted with strong (even TS force) southwesterly winds from a feeder band or two. I've experienced that a couple times. And sometime ago there was a hurricane named Gabrielle which was, to the best of my recollection, somewhere in the vicinity of Bermuda and it had a long feeder band which set off tornadoes in Trinidad, which is south of us. It also sent large swells into the Eastern Caribbean as a whole and damaged coastal properties here in Barbados.

[stormwise]

[LarryWx]

1. Luis, I see it has risen somewhat in latitude (from 11N, 1E to 13N, 7W) but it still has a shot at coming across the CV's near 13-14N if trends continue.

2. Abajan, very interesting! Effects when the storm center is that far away...wow.

[AJC3]

If this more southerly track trend continues, maybe even folks as far south as abajan in Barbados will need to deal with this though that remains to be seen.

Even if it passes 1000 miles to our north, there's still a chance we may get blasted with strong (even TS force) southwesterly winds from a feeder band or two. I've experienced that a couple times. And sometime ago there was a hurricane named Gabrielle which was, to the best of my recollection, somewhere in the vicinity of Bermuda and it had a long feeder band which set off tornadoes in Trinidad, which is south of us. It also sent large swells into the Eastern Caribbean as a whole and damaged coastal properties here in Barbados.

I remember Gabrielle (1989) well, as I had just started studying meteorology during the fall of my junior year at Cornell. Up until that time, it was probably the LARGEST storm I could recall seeing in the Atlantic basin on satellite imagery. IIRC It caused some serious high surf/swell issues up and down the eastern U.S. seaboard, even as distant as it was. It still impresses me to this day.

[WeatherEmperor]

Just a touch north compared to 18z




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[Hurricaneman]

this run could run through the greater antilles and Cuba

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[WeatherEmperor]

Definitely more north than 18z. Approachin PR and going WNW




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[Hurricaneman]

Could be a Florida threat this run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[WeatherEmperor]

Hugging the north coast of Hispanola still moving WNW. It was south of Hispanola on 18z Fwiw.....




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[WeatherEmperor]

In southern bahamas moving WNW. Suspect a FLA landfall. Margin of error with land interaction is small. Any deviation could destroy it over the islands or bring it south as a carib cruiser.




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[WeatherEmperor]

In Bahamas offshore South Florida moving WNW. Gonna stop posting as it is now pure fantasy land.




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[Alyono]

lets not forget that ONLY the MU develops this

No other model is doing anything with it. I'd say development chances are no higher than 25%

[AutoPenalti]

I see what looks like a trough at HR 252?

[Dylan]

lets not forget that ONLY the MU develops this

No other model is doing anything with it. I'd say development chances are no higher than 25%

I respect the fact that you're a professional Meteorologist, and maybe you weren't aware, but the ECMWF also has been developing this disturbance. In fact, the ECMWF is coming in stronger on this run compared to the 12z run.