ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

NHC said they adjusted track south. Must have been just barely.

I couldn't tell it moved at all. We've had multiple forecasts now and the landfall points have all been similar so I'm confident they've got a good handle on the steering... When the models are changing you see them slowly adjust. In this case I think it's pretty much been Dixie or Levy county the whole time...25 miles either side of the Suwannee river is solid consistency thus far..

If you do dot mind me asking, who do you mean "they've got a good handle on the steering" ? I'm learning.

the fact that the players on the field haven't changed much leading to a very consistent forecast. contrast that a storm where things do change...like Katrina. at first it was expected to landfall around Apalachicola. then the models started shifting westward. the NHC nudged over toward panama city. but the west shifts in the models accelerated. finally there was capitulation and a massive move in the track. we've seen nothing like that so far...where the models are relentlessly moving toward a different solution run after run. Obviously things can change.. but so far they've been remarkably consistent. the other thing that's been consistent is this storm's inability to do much. we'll see if that changes...but frankly at this point I'd be surprised.

[RL3AO]

Where is this trough that is going to counter decades of historical tracks? I have learned long ago to stop doubting the NHC but what am I missing?

"By 48 hours, the depression is
expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida ahead
of a shortwave trough that is forecast to dig southeastward into the
southeastern United States and northern Gulf Mexico."

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... oop-12.gif

I believe it's that trough that's digging in the northeast right now.

The weakness looks to be entirely caused by the cutoff low over South Carolina.

Also at the lower levels you can see the surface trough in the NE GOM that develops over the next day or so.

[HurriGuy]

I just cannot agree with the GFS placement of the llc out to 12 hours

[chaser1]

Aric, what are your thoughts on the multiple vort centers? I'm guessing the multiple vort centers are primarily a result of the convective blow ups and a new center attempting to co-locate at this convective point of convergence, only to be left exposed by the next onslaught of increased vertical shear. All the while, we then have yet again some MLC further south or east while Mr. LLC happily marches off to greener pastures. At least this is, and has been my take with 99l thus far.

[TheProfessor]

Where is this trough that is going to counter decades of historical tracks? I have learned long ago to stop doubting the NHC but what am I missing?

"By 48 hours, the depression is
expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida ahead
of a shortwave trough that is forecast to dig southeastward into the
southeastern United States and northern Gulf Mexico."

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... oop-12.gif

I believe it's that trough that's digging in the northeast right now.

The weakness looks to be entirely caused by the cutoff low over South Carolina.

Also at the lower levels you can see the surface trough in the NE GOM that develops over the next day or so.

[]http://i.imgur.com/eX6huHe.png[]

Yep, I can see the trough start to develop over South Carolina at 42 hours on the GFS 500mb anomaly chart.

[sponger]

Aha! It has to be as its the only one close. It basically follows into the weakness created by TD 8. Thank you!

[SeGaBob]

I'm noticing 3 bursts of storms at 03:15...anyone else?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 12:07am EDT:

From: http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker ... 872&zoom=6

Through 11:21pm EDT:

[Aric Dunn]

that northern vort is now dropping wsw to sw if it keep that up it will approach the yucatan .. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, does this still look like it's going to strengthen to you?

a number of factors are still in play and we just have to wait for a well defined system then we can make some better strength calls.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what are your thoughts on the multiple vort centers? I'm guessing the multiple vort centers are primarily a result of the convective blow ups and a new center attempting to co-locate at this convective point of convergence, only to be left exposed by the next onslaught of increased vertical shear. All the while, we then have yet again some MLC further south or east while Mr. LLC happily marches off to greener pastures. At least this is, and has been my take with 99l thus far.

it was a combination of the shear and the interaction with cuba. the land seemed to have helped vorts develop where ever there was less resistance once it can clear its southern inflow from cuba it can strengthen. had it been a strong system as it approached the island we likely would not have seen this. but since it pretty much developed near land it was partially trapped by land interaction.

[HurriGuy]

I guess recon left early? They are on the way

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA recon took off at 12:18am EDT from Tampa. They were scheduled to depart at 12:30am EDT. Should arrive by about 1:30am EDT.

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 30/0530Z, 1130Z
B. NOAA3 0809A CYCLONE
C. 30/0430Z
D. 25.0N 85.5W
E. 30/0500Z TO 30/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[Aric Dunn]

given the convective pattern the secondary vort or the one I think will take over and that recon will still find there is pretty much where that little blow up is.. or
22.72° N 85.49° W

the northern one is still naked and rotating wsw.. should be interesting.

[HurriGuy]

I for one am glad they did not wait. I don't think I could have stayed up

[SeGaBob]

I wonder if they find a TS.

[HurriGuy]

Aric,

There has to be some point where this gets too far south, right? To be more specific, a point where it affects the track more than these slight "bumps" NHC is doing now.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

There has to be some point where this gets too far south, right? To be more specific, a point where it affects the track more than these slight "bumps" NHC is doing now.

yes of course, its possible its already to far west and south.. we will see. even if the models initialized the northern vort they all have it moving nw right away that vort is now moving wsw .. something will change if it continues do so.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA recon took off at 12:18am EDT from Tampa. Should arrive by about 1:30am EDT.

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 30/0530Z, 1130Z
B. NOAA3 0809A CYCLONE
C. 30/0430Z
D. 25.0N 85.5W
E. 30/0500Z TO 30/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker ... 25&lng=-80

[Aric Dunn]

gfs brings it all the way to 88 west before the turn in 2 days that northern vort at this rate will be there by tomorrow afternoon.