ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Noles2016]

So the 7:00 pm intermediate indicated Hermine was at 25.5N & 87.4W. Here I sit looking at the satellite along with that plot and I'm asking myself if Hermine's COC is practically exposed and no longer under deep convection given that her North (or NNE) motion would implie that. Or, has the storm drifted toward the east?

It did wobble to the east earlier, but the center is nearly exposed.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So the 7:00 pm intermediate indicated Hermine was at 25.5N & 87.4W. Here I sit looking at the satellite along with that plot and I'm asking myself if Hermine's COC is practically exposed and no longer under deep convection given that her North (or NNE) motion would implie that. Or, has the storm drifted toward the east?

It did wobble to the east earlier, but the center is nearly exposed.

Yeah and that is the Atlantic basin I have come to know in recent years. Glad it has become exposed and hope it finds a way to weaken some before landfall.

[BRweather]

Looks like we might be below 1000mb

[Bocadude85]

It definitely wobbled east...Hermine will have to move almost due north to reach her next forecast point.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212352.shtml?5-daynl#contents

[sponger]

Rain is starting to make its way into N Florida.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=25

[Noles2016]

So the 7:00 pm intermediate indicated Hermine was at 25.5N & 87.4W. Here I sit looking at the satellite along with that plot and I'm asking myself if Hermine's COC is practically exposed and no longer under deep convection given that her North (or NNE) motion would implie that. Or, has the storm drifted toward the east?

It did wobble to the east earlier, but the center is nearly exposed.

Yeah and that is the Atlantic basin I have come to know in recent years. Glad it has become exposed and hope it finds a way to weaken some before landfall.

Classic NE GOM system. Sheared, lopsided... just ugly.

[RL3AO]

So the 7:00 pm intermediate indicated Hermine was at 25.5N & 87.4W. Here I sit looking at the satellite along with that plot and I'm asking myself if Hermine's COC is practically exposed and no longer under deep convection given that her North (or NNE) motion would implie that. Or, has the storm drifted toward the east?

Recon finding it around 87.0W, 25.5N. It's drifted east a bit, but it's still on the NW side of the convection.

[Emmett_Brown]

1000.6 MB with flight level wind of 34 kt., so the central pressure must be a bit lower

[jlauderdal]

It definitely wobbled east...Hermine will have to move almost due north to reach her next forecast point.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212352.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Inbound feeder band to boca

[Soonercane]

1000.6 MB with flight level wind of 34 kt., so the central pressure must be a bit lower

I think the pressure sensor is biased low on this flight.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Guesses for 11pm advisory?

I'll go with 1000mb and 60mph, with a forecasted landfall intensity of 70mph, but hurricane warnings posted regardless.

[Evil Jeremy]

Pressure down to 998.8mb

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010209
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 22 20160901
020000 2553N 08659W 8434 01501 0002 +211 +149 082031 035 034 001 00
020030 2552N 08701W 8428 01504 0002 +205 +142 072027 030 029 001 00
020100 2549N 08701W 8427 01501 9994 +210 +139 068026 028 026 001 00
020130 2547N 08701W 8440 01489 9992 +211 +153 066015 024 020 000 00
020200 2545N 08701W 8439 01483 9988 +203 +171 285006 014 015 001 00
020230 2544N 08701W 8432 01490 9990 +201 +163 256022 027 017 000 00
020300 2542N 08701W 8427 01497 9994 +196 +163 253029 030 020 002 00
020330 2540N 08701W 8431 01494 9994 +199 +160 257026 029 026 002 03
020400 2539N 08702W 8426 01504 9999 +200 +155 258024 025 029 001 03
020430 2537N 08703W 8429 01504 0003 +199 +148 260026 026 028 001 00
020500 2536N 08704W 8428 01506 0006 +199 +145 260025 026 027 002 03
020530 2534N 08705W 8420 01522 0018 +193 +151 267022 023 029 001 00
020600 2533N 08707W 8428 01518 0022 +190 +155 272019 021 029 000 00
020630 2531N 08708W 8429 01518 0026 +189 +158 279017 018 029 000 00
020700 2530N 08710W 8433 01517 0030 +189 +156 292017 017 027 000 00
020730 2528N 08712W 8432 01521 0033 +188 +154 287017 017 026 001 00
020800 2526N 08713W 8426 01528 0035 +187 +157 284020 020 027 000 00
020830 2525N 08715W 8430 01522 0038 +177 +169 294019 020 026 000 00
020900 2523N 08717W 8430 01526 0037 +185 +162 295019 019 023 000 00
020930 2522N 08719W 8427 01529 0039 +186 +145 285018 019 022 000 00
$$
;

Pressure 999mb.

[gatorcane]

It definitely wobbled east...Hermine will have to move almost due north to reach her next forecast point.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212352.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Inbound feeder band to boca

The size and reach of this storm continues to surprise. Note NWS Miami actually lowered rain chances for metro SE Florida just a couple of hours ago to the 20-30% range.

[sponger]

Pressure down to 998.8mb

The pressure does not lie. Steady strengthening. Looks like it's stair stepping up the gulf.

[BRweather]

Yep

approx. 999mb

[NDG]

It definitely wobbled east...Hermine will have to move almost due north to reach her next forecast point.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212352.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Based on the last 3 recon fixes the LLC has been moving almost due north. Yes, earlier this afternoon it wobbled around and or reformed further east. You see the the convective high cloud tops been blown to the east by the shear making it have the illusion that the storm is moving almost due east.

[SeGaBob]

I'm not usually one to criticize a storm but I don't see how it's strengthening. Its just 2 blobs...

[caneman]

So the 7:00 pm intermediate indicated Hermine was at 25.5N & 87.4W. Here I sit looking at the satellite along with that plot and I'm asking myself if Hermine's COC is practically exposed and no longer under deep convection given that her North (or NNE) motion would implie that. Or, has the storm drifted toward the east?

Recon finding it around 87.0W, 25.5N. It's drifted east a bit, but it's still on the NW side of the convection.

That's no Northerly motion since 5 est. And almost a half degree east. It's further east than their 12 hour 5 am forecast point. Not that it won't all even out but we'll see.

[gatorcane]

Feederband as far east as SE Florida. Hermine no doubt continues to surprise: