ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crimi481]

are the twins separating? which center is NHC tracking? 2 low's are wrestling each other, disrupting the banding. Dancing with each other?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-bd.html

Definitely not a Pro

[AxaltaRacing24]

Was kind of surprised to see the H on the forecast cone.

I honestly was not. No matter how sloppy people say this looks it is slowly intensifying and was not even a TS this morning. Now it is a 60 MPH ts. She is on her way.

[BRweather]

are the twins separating? which center is NHC tracking? 2 low's are wrestling each other, disrupting the banding. Dancing with each other?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-bd.html

Definitely not a Pro

there is only one center

[RL3AO]

are the twins separating? which center is NHC tracking? 2 low's are wrestling each other, disrupting the banding. Dancing with each other?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-bd.html

Definitely not a Pro

Those aren't two lows. The southern one is just a cluster of thunderstorms.

[Noles2016]

are the twins separating? which center is NHC tracking? 2 low's are wrestling each other, disrupting the banding. Dancing with each other?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-bd.html

Definitely not a Pro

The center is actually at the northwest edge of the northern ball of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at it over the past couple hours.. a few center relocations might bring it in farther east. the general motion may be N to NNE but over all motion may end up being NE big bend may be a more likely landfall.

[Bocadude85]

looking at it over the past couple hours.. a few center relocations might bring it in farther east. the general motion may be N to NNE but over all motion may end up being NE big bend may be a more likely landfall.

I'm thinking around the Perry area for landfall tomorrow night.

[FLLurker32]

I figured out where some of my confusion with my last question came from. As recently as the 2pm EST advisory it was forecasted to go NNE and then turn NE. Apparently, with the 5pm advisory that NE movement was dropped to instead say it will continue going NNE. I didn't catch that change.

That makes for a big difference as to which side of the cone it goes.

[JKingTampa]

Honestly I am surprised with a prediction of a landfalling hurricane in the big bend that us in the Tampa bay area have still yet to see a Tropical Storm Watch.

[deltadog03]

Looks like recon fixes still showed a north (generally) movement. New storms moving north with the center look pretty good

[JKingTampa]

I figured out where some of my confusion with my last question came from. As recently as the 2pm EST advisory it was forecasted to go NNE and then turn NE. Apparently, with the 5pm advisory that NE movement was dropped to instead say it will continue going NNE. I didn't catch that change.

That makes for a big difference as to which side of the cone it goes.

Probably due to the eastern drift.

[cdavis6287]

looking at it over the past couple hours.. a few center relocations might bring it in farther east. the general motion may be N to NNE but over all motion may end up being NE big bend may be a more likely landfall.

I'm thinking around the Perry area for landfall tomorrow night.

I should be paid for my off the wall predictions. Exactly where I thought it would hit and intensity matching as well. It was between there and Cedar Key but very close given the wind field and southeastern end. I live on the Saint Augustine/ St Johns/Flagler line so I guess we might see some weather tomorrow night. Prob more so you. Be safe!

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like recon fixes still showed a north (generally) movement. New storms moving north with the center look pretty good

its just so slow.. the models have this moving at 10kts or more by now. landfall time will likely be moved forward again.

[Aric Dunn]

if it does not meet the 5am advisory point landfall will be later and later. the acceleration is key especially for intensification.

[mpic]

KHOU 11 in Houston just said it would come in at Panama City

[psyclone]

that slow movement is problematic now that we have a strengthening system. a 6mb drop between advisories is pretty respectable. Nocturnal bursting could rev the engine some more..

[Aric Dunn]

recon leaving already ?

[toad strangler]

.

[caneman]

I don't think it's that slow now, last update said it was.moving at 10 mph

[toad strangler]

sorry, double post. Stupid phone.