ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Still don't understand why no warning for TB and south

[Zanthe]

According to the NHC website, Rick Knabb, the NHC Director is going to provide a live update at 2:30 on Hermine, apparently on Twitter.

[NJWxHurricane]

Looks like the eye is headed straight for Port St.Joe area?

[Aric Dunn]

Still don't understand why no warning for TB and south

extremely bizarre actually.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011655
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 23 20160901
164600 2823N 08453W 8428 01519 0051 +172 +172 149054 055 050 016 00
164630 2822N 08455W 8428 01519 0048 +173 +173 149052 056 049 012 00
164700 2821N 08456W 8426 01520 0038 +177 +177 149056 058 049 012 00
164730 2820N 08457W 8427 01513 //// +171 //// 150053 057 047 004 01
164800 2819N 08458W 8431 01509 //// +169 //// 152046 050 047 002 01
164830 2818N 08459W 8423 01513 //// +170 //// 149047 048 047 004 01
164900 2817N 08501W 8442 01491 0032 +178 //// 148047 050 047 006 01
164930 2816N 08502W 8436 01499 //// +170 //// 146042 049 047 006 01
165000 2815N 08503W 8424 01508 //// +173 //// 145041 041 044 001 01
165030 2814N 08504W 8429 01500 //// +175 //// 145041 041 043 001 01
165100 2813N 08506W 8430 01496 //// +174 //// 146038 041 043 002 01
165130 2812N 08507W 8429 01495 //// +175 //// 147037 038 043 003 01
165200 2810N 08508W 8423 01497 //// +172 //// 142036 038 043 003 01
165230 2809N 08510W 8432 01489 9997 +178 +177 141035 037 044 001 01
165300 2808N 08511W 8429 01487 //// +176 //// 140037 040 041 000 01
165330 2807N 08512W 8428 01484 9988 +187 +166 140037 040 042 001 00
165400 2806N 08513W 8429 01484 9987 +191 +154 140035 036 044 000 00
165430 2805N 08515W 8433 01479 9983 +191 +153 138039 040 044 000 00
165500 2804N 08516W 8424 01482 9979 +191 +149 134041 041 042 000 00
165530 2802N 08517W 8433 01471 9973 +193 +149 130042 043 042 000 00
$$
;

[otterlyspicey]

Yeah Hermine is definitely dancing to the NE. You can see the center turning quite quickly now on the satellite and she's darting to the NE. At least from what I can see.

[RL3AO]

According to the NHC website, Rick Knabb, the NHC Director is going to provide a live update at 2:30 on Hermine, apparently on Twitter.

It'll be on Periscope.

https://www.periscope.tv/NWSNHC

[bg1]

Hermine, 2010:



Looks almost the same.

[psyclone]

Still don't understand why no warning for TB and south

You got it now

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1155 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF AND
EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that tropical-storm-force winds extend significantly farther to the
east of the center of Hermine than they did earlier. This requires
the extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward along the Gulf
coast of Florida to Englewood, and along the Florida east coast
southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

A special advisory will be issued within the next 30 minutes to
update the forecast and warnings for Hermine.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

[NJWxHurricane]

Yeah Hermine is definitely dancing to the NE. You can see the center turning quite quickly now on the satellite and she's darting to the NE. At least from what I can see.

More of a northerly competent to it imo, NNE. Think the eye heads into the Apalachicola/Port St.Joe area.

[chris_fit]

Finally....



000
WTNT64 KNHC 011655
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1155 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF AND
EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that tropical-storm-force winds extend significantly farther to the
east of the center of Hermine than they did earlier. This requires
the extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward along the Gulf
coast of Florida to Englewood, and along the Florida east coast
southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

A special advisory will be issued within the next 30 minutes to
update the forecast and warnings for Hermine.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

[BRweather]

Dry air is a problem, but I would expect whats in the core now to get filtered out quickly.

[Evil Jeremy]

In my 10 years on here I can't remember a special advisory for an expanded wind field..... or the NHC director briefing people live on Twitter. Strange times we live in. Glad to see the TS warnings extended south (on both coasts).

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011705
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 24 20160901
165600 2801N 08519W 8428 01468 9971 +188 +155 125041 042 040 000 00
165630 2800N 08520W 8430 01465 9968 +182 +166 127042 043 043 000 00
165700 2759N 08521W 8432 01457 9969 +173 +170 129041 043 042 000 01
165730 2758N 08523W 8430 01452 //// +179 //// 131037 040 043 001 01
165800 2757N 08524W 8429 01451 //// +183 //// 126035 036 041 000 01
165830 2755N 08525W 8430 01443 //// +181 //// 123034 035 042 001 01
165900 2754N 08527W 8430 01439 //// +185 //// 118033 034 041 001 01
165930 2753N 08528W 8430 01436 9930 +189 +182 112031 032 043 001 01
170000 2752N 08530W 8428 01434 9926 +192 +181 108027 030 043 000 00
170030 2750N 08531W 8430 01429 9923 +191 +180 102022 025 041 000 00
170100 2749N 08532W 8427 01429 //// +188 //// 101021 022 039 000 01
170130 2748N 08534W 8428 01424 9912 +199 +181 090015 019 039 001 00
170200 2746N 08534W 8429 01424 9909 +203 +171 085007 013 033 001 03
170230 2745N 08534W 8426 01422 9907 +201 +181 048001 004 024 001 00
170300 2743N 08534W 8426 01422 9906 +204 +170 284005 007 024 000 00
170330 2741N 08534W 8430 01418 9904 +205 +170 276007 007 024 000 00
170400 2740N 08534W 8431 01419 9906 +205 +169 285008 009 023 000 03
170430 2739N 08536W 8433 01420 9911 +200 +179 280014 016 026 000 00
170500 2738N 08537W 8429 01423 9910 +202 +180 277019 020 028 000 00
170530 2736N 08538W 8430 01425 9909 +208 +170 282019 019 028 000 00
$$
;

Plane likely missed the center - pressure likely around 988mb.

[BRweather]

170100 2749N 08532W 8427 01429 //// +188 //// 101021 022 039 000 01
170130 2748N 08534W 8428 01424 9912 +199 +181 090015 019 039 001 00
170200 2746N 08534W 8429 01424 9909 +203 +171 085007 013 033 001 03
170230 2745N 08534W 8426 01422 9907 +201 +181 048001 004 024 001 00
170300 2743N 08534W 8426 01422 9906 +204 +170 284005 007 024 000 00
170330 2741N 08534W 8430 01418 9904 +205 +170 276007 007 024 000 00
170400 2740N 08534W 8431 01419 9906 +205 +169 285008 009 023 000 03
170430 2739N 08536W 8433 01420 9911 +200 +179 280014 016 026 000 00
170500 2738N 08537W 8429 01423 9910 +202 +180 277019 020 028 000 00
170530 2736N 08538W 8430 01425 9909 +208 +170 282019 019 028 000 00
$$

[RL3AO]

Another storm for me to continue my storm surge research from this summer. Hope everyone does okay with the storm, but I'm a little excited.

[LCfromFL]

Here is the updated briefing from the NWS JAX (it was updated at 12:32 PM ET): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

[FLLurker32]

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1155 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF AND
EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that tropical-storm-force winds extend significantly farther to the
east of the center of Hermine than they did earlier. This requires
the extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward along the Gulf
coast of Florida to Englewood, and along the Florida east coast
southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

A special advisory will be issued within the next 30 minutes to
update the forecast and warnings for Hermine.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

This only mentions both coasts but I'd imagine it will be issued for the Inland areas inbetween too?

[Evil Jeremy]

Pressure down to 990mb, center looks to be moving NE. Center looks like it's made it as far east as 85.6W