2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Siker]

Is that GOM thing 92L?

Correct.

[blp]

Well hello Ukmet much stronger and develops both waves again. Euro holding strong maybe we go the other way back to development with the GFS on 18z

[TheStormExpert]

Well hello Ukmet much stronger and develops both waves again. Euro holding strong maybe we go the other way back to development with the GFS on 18z

Which one is which?

[Alyono]

nope

18Z MU shows a dead Atlantic

Dead through the believable time frame that is. Does show some things after 9 days

[centuryv58]

Not always wise to just look at a few model runs for anything definitive. True for development or no development. Just my opinion, but we have a ways to go before season close.

[Alyono]

season is not over. However, we appear to have entered a lull that may last a week or two, unless 92L develops

[Hurricaneman]

Both the 0zGFS and 12zEuro develop the wave about to come off of Africa in 24hrs with the GFS taking longer to develop

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[jason1912]

Looks like the 0z GFS so far has development in the MDR like the 12z euro has.

[wxmann_91]

Looks like the 0z GFS so far has development in the MDR like the 12z euro has.

Not gonna happen. Toss it.

[Hammy]

season is not over. However, we appear to have entered a lull that may last a week or two, unless 92L develops

This continues the similarities with 1998, even if the ACE isn't keeping pace--we had a two week lull after Danielle/Earl that year if I recall in which we had only a high-end tropical storm around the second week of September, which interestingly enough if 92L does develop could take a similar track up into Texas based on some model runs.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Gfs develops a system off the coast of Africa in about 5 days and has it as a Hurricane hitting Jamaica and moving NW towards Cuba. It showed this system in previous runs but much weaker and further north in the Atlantic. I know its fantasy but just showing a few screenshots








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[Hurricaneman]

18z Gfs develops a system off the coast of Africa in about 5 days and has it as a Hurricane hitting Jamaica and moving NW towards Cuba. It showed this system in previous runs but much weaker and further north in the Atlantic. I know its fantasy but just showing a few screenshots

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016090 ... 96d3b6.jpg

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016090 ... 09596c.jpg

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016090 ... becb10.jpg

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That track is very similar to Ivan in 2004 hopefully will be nothing like it but it seems the 0zGFS is showing something similar through 186hrs

[1900hurricane]

It looks like American Numerical Guidance begins to amplify an upward pulse of Madden-Julian in Phase 1 in the day 7 and beyond time frame.

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Gfs shows development again in 5 days off Africa and ends up near western cuba moving NW.

Needs to be watched because as 1900hurricane just posted it looks like the ATL basin will have upward motion the next week or so and if that happens, dry air will not be a problem. Here are some pics








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[wxmann_91]

Dry air can be a problem regardless of whether the Atlantic is in a positive upward motion state or not. That said, having that upward motion may make incipient disturbances more resistant against shear or dry air. That said again, models tend to overdo this effect and over-produce TC's in the medium range when a basin transitions from a sinking to upward motion state. Just a heads-up to everyone.

[Alyono]

that massive cane is showing itself to be yet another MU special

Dropped like a hot potato in the 6Z

[TheStormExpert]

that massive cane is showing itself to be yet another MU special

Dropped like a hot potato in the 6Z

Yep, even with the MJO looking to become more favorable as we progress through September for the Atlantic the basin very well could remain rather quiet, this season continues to surprise.

Not to mention the global models have done astonishingly horrible so far this season making it even more enjoyable of a season to track.

[wxmann_91]

that massive cane is showing itself to be yet another MU special

Dropped like a hot potato in the 6Z

Yep, even with the MJO looking to become more favorable as we progress through September for the Atlantic the basin very well could remain rather quiet, this season continues to surprise.

Not to mention the global models have done astonishingly horrible so far this season making it even more enjoyable of a season to track.

Simple solution: stop watching the models... they have been useless past Day 3 this year and since it's the Atlantic... the outcome (or lack thereof) is pretty predictable.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the 0zGFS 500mb pattern and surface pattern even if nothing forms there its the type of setup that spawns development in the western Caribbean as it would pile up moisture there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[SFLcane]

Hmm maybe hermine was all she wrote this season. Plenty of season left but as of right now conditions are hostile just everywhere. Should be interesting couple of weeks but I wouldn't hold my breath.