WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Looks like Meranti would swallow the whole island of Itbayat, Batanes...can we consider it as a landfall... if so, it would be added to the growing list of cat 5 landfalls for the Philippines.
There is an airport there, we should have some data from that location... if any instrument survives.

[cycloneye]

Wow!

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/775720824170946560

[ManilaTC]

Here is a radar shot. Landfall is almost here.

[Dave C]

Latest loop shows a west wobble, a more west movement is better news for southern Taiwan. WOW for those poor Batan islands... I looked up their population, about 25,000 as of 2015.

[1900hurricane]

Now breaking into the eye.

[shah83]

CMC has been consistently depicting interaction between Meranti and Malakas that creates very large rainfall for the Yangtze delta. GFS sort of does, too.

Tho' it has to be said that the 12z is wild and likely Fitow scale disaster somewheres there.

[JPmia]

Basco, Philippines (southern eyewall) last report was 96mph with 116mph gusts

https://www.wunderground.com/ph//basco/ ... 00.1.98135

Itbayat island directly in the eye.

[cycloneye]

ltbayat in the middle.

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/775762043970387968

[euro6208]

Any reports from Itbayat?

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2016 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 20:46:41 N Lon : 121:48:51 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR
20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC ULTRA-DEEP
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 15-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY EYE FEATURE IN THE 131054Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 160 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW SUSTAINED BY A POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 30 CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE. STY 16W IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS
LIFE SPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION, AS IT BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN, WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 36, STY MERANTI WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN CHINA NEAR SHANTOU. THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASED
VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT AS A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO
LANDFALL IN CHINA WHERE TRACK VARIABILITY IS HIGH DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

I see 97 kt/933 mb so far.

[Dave C]

Basco, Philippines (southern eyewall) last report was 96mph with 116mph gusts

https://www.wunderground.com/ph//basco/ ... 00.1.98135

Itbayat island directly in the eye.

Holy crap, I just went to that link and it had gust to 150 mph! sustained at 122mph!

[euro6208]

WOW!

16W MERANTI 160913 1800 20.8N 121.8E WPAC 165 887

165 knots!

[Dave C]

I see 97 kt/933 mb so far.

Is that 10 min or 1 min sustained?

[beoumont]

ltbayat in the middle.

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/775762043970387968

Hopefully someone on the island took some pictures or video of the 80% full moon that was approximately 20% above the horizon in the eye. The reflection of the moonbeams off of that spectacular eyewall coliseum cloud should be, well, spectacular.

[1900hurricane]

I see 97 kt/933 mb so far.

Is that 10 min or 1 min sustained?

Ten minute sustained.

[euro6208]

Beat Haiyan's record in terms of pressure, and just 5 hPa (mbar) shy of Megi. Astonishing.

TY 1614 (Meranti)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 13 September 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 13 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N20°25' (20.4°)
E122°55' (122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 890 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (120 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (170 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 440 km (240 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

JMA's scale rounds off every 5 mb so to think Haiyan only peaked at 895mb is laughable. With that kind of presentation, it was easily likely it was sub 890 or even 880s, who knows even 870s...Look at Patricia at 872mb, not nearly intense looking as Haiyan...

Megi is 3rd with recon measured 885mb...Not sure who is stronger between Meranti and Haiyan though. Meranti had all the time in the world to intensify and it did...Recon?

[euro6208]

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3427

Great blog from Dr. Jeff Masters...

Meranti among the deepest typhoons in world records
Meranti is a very large and extremely powerful typhoon. Its highest 1-minute sustained winds were 185 mph on Tuesday morning, according to the JWTC. This puts Meranti ahead of Cyclone Winston for the strongest sustained winds for any tropical cyclone of 2016 thus far. (Winston’s top winds were reduced from 185 to 180 mph in post-storm reanalysis.)

[euro6208]

It would have been fascinating to see the pressure inside the eye.