2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[LarryWx]

Day 10 of 12Z Euro would be a dangerous looking map as far as the SE US is concerned should there be anything tropical below that upper high:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=221

Of course, this looks totally different from the 0Z day 10 and we're talking out in fantasyland. So, I'm not at all expecting this to verify closely. However, IF it were to, then it would leave the door open.

[abajan]

18z GFS from today, 9/14/16, has a system developing out of the ITCZ around 240 hours ...

Speaking of the ITCZ, where is it? The convection normally associated with it seems to have been practically non-existent this hurricane season.

[blp]

18z GFS from today, 9/14/16, has a system developing out of the ITCZ around 240 hours and then takes it as a Caribbean Cruiser cyclone at 384 hours. Most likely won't come to pass but as we get closer to the end of September and head into October the focus area to watch for CONUS threats will be from the Western Caribbean. Any trough diving south across the CONUS will pull anything in the Western Caribbean to the North.

I have been looking at the ensembles past few runs and they are increasing the odds with each run. The CMC is picking this wave up as well but a little slower than the GFS and develops it before approaching the Antilles. The European show a sharp trough approaching the Antilles.

I agree October could be dangerous in the Caribbean. The waves continue to be quite vigorous and if any make it into the Caribbean then watch out.

[gatorcane]

Long-range GFS shows an active start to October. It has shown some kind of Caribbean storm off and on the past several runs

[blp]

Long-range GFS shows an active start to October. It has shown some kind of Caribbean storm off and on the past several runs

I suspect we will get a good MJO push in October. I think the Atlantic is overdue for a good pulse.

[Hurricaneman]

I personally think we are going to see a dangerous hurricane come out of the Caribbean sometime in October, could be as early as early October as some of the models seem to be indicating right now but also these runs could have phantom storms as they're so far out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Hurricaneman]

Long-range GFS shows an active start to October. It has shown some kind of Caribbean storm off and on the past several runs

I suspect we will get a good MJO push in October. I think the Atlantic is overdue for a good pulse.

agreed as we haven't had something like that happen since Sandy in 2012 and hadn't seen a major pulse in the Atlantic in October since 2005

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[HurricaneFan]

18z GFS from today, 9/14/16, has a system developing out of the ITCZ around 240 hours and then takes it as a Caribbean Cruiser cyclone at 384 hours. Most likely won't come to pass but as we get closer to the end of September and head into October the focus area to watch for CONUS threats will be from the Western Caribbean. Any trough diving south across the CONUS will pull anything in the Western Caribbean to the North.

I have been looking at the ensembles past few runs and they are increasing the odds with each run. The CMC is picking this wave up as well but a little slower than the GFS and develops it before approaching the Antilles. The European show a sharp trough approaching the Antilles.

I agree October could be dangerous in the Caribbean. The waves continue to be quite vigorous and if any make it into the Caribbean then watch out.

Is the Caribbean cruiser forecasted by the models from the Tropical Wave behind 96L,on the West coast of Africa now?

[CourierPR]

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi's public video on Weatherbell this am is interesting. He talks about his idea that even if Karl gets swept out by the trough, it will leave a piece of energy behind in The Bahamas that needs to be watched for development in the next 6-10 days, given the progged setup of high pressure in the eastern US.

[TheStormExpert]

We COULD see a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean sometime in October BUT, the Atlantic needs a complete makeover in terms of UL Conditions for that to happen.

[Blown Away]

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi's public video on Weatherbell this am is interesting. He talks about his idea that even if Karl gets swept out by the trough, it will leave a piece of energy behind in The Bahamas that needs to be watched for development in the next 6-10 days, given the progged setup of high pressure in the eastern US.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=220

We shall see, energy does begin to deepen a bit once in the Bahamas... Still very weak at 240 hours...

[SFLcane]

Long-range GFS shows an active start to October. It has shown some kind of Caribbean storm off and on the past several runs

Sorry gator I just can't see this coming to pass given the conditions out there even 5 mjo's might not make a difference. One thing though the ECMWF seasonal nailed this showing all this sinking airmass basin wide.

[tolakram]

Sorry gator I just can't see this coming to pass given the conditions out there even 5 mjo's might not make a difference. One thing though the ECMWF seasonal nailed this showing all this sinking airmass basin wide.

You mean the longer term guidance? I question nailing it since the long term forecasts have been about 50/50 and the shorter term have been alternating blowing storms up and dissipating them. Maybe the short term version needs to have a talk to the long term one.

[centuryv58]

Long-range GFS shows an active start to October. It has shown some kind of Caribbean storm off and on the past several runs

Sorry gator I just can't see this coming to pass given the conditions out there even 5 mjo's might not make a difference. One thing though the ECMWF seasonal nailed this showing all this sinking airmass basin wide.

What conditions are those? Almost 13 named storms so far.

[WeatherEmperor]

Long-range GFS shows an active start to October. It has shown some kind of Caribbean storm off and on the past several runs

Sorry gator I just can't see this coming to pass given the conditions out there even 5 mjo's might not make a difference. One thing though the ECMWF seasonal nailed this showing all this sinking airmass basin wide.

What conditions are those? Almost 13 named storms so far.

The above average sea level pressures that the Euro was forecasting for July/Aug/Sept way back in the Spring for the Atlantic. It didn't nail the forecast perfectly...but it was very accurate. The Atlantic overall has not been very favorable with the majority of systems being weak/sheared Tropical Storms.

We are up to Karl which is 11 named storms but more importantly then that is that ACE value for the ATL...which really measures how active/inactive the Atlantic is. As of the moment of this writing, Atlantic ACE is 49.61 units...which is 74% of normal YTD. We should be at 67 units of ACE at this point in a normal season. (Source: http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php)

[SFLcane]

Long-range GFS shows an active start to October. It has shown some kind of Caribbean storm off and on the past several runs

Sorry gator I just can't see this coming to pass given the conditions out there even 5 mjo's might not make a difference. One thing though the ECMWF seasonal nailed this showing all this sinking airmass basin wide.

What conditions are those? Almost 13 named storms so far.

Yea 13 crapola storms. Can't hang on to convection for More then 2-3 hrs.

[centuryv58]

Sorry gator I just can't see this coming to pass given the conditions out there even 5 mjo's might not make a difference. One thing though the ECMWF seasonal nailed this showing all this sinking airmass basin wide.

What conditions are those? Almost 13 named storms so far.

The above average sea level pressures that the Euro was forecasting for July/Aug/Sept way back in the Spring for the Atlantic. It didn't nail the forecast perfectly...but it was very accurate. The Atlantic overall has not been very favorable with the majority of systems being weak/sheared Tropical Storms.

We are up to Karl which is 11 named storms but more importantly then that is that ACE value for the ATL...which really measures how active/inactive the Atlantic is. As of the moment of this writing, Atlantic ACE is 49.61 units...which is 74% of normal YTD. We should be at 67 units of ACE at this point in a normal season. (Source: http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php)

It may be better to wait until the season closes as I'm not sure the weather knows it's behind YTD on Sept 19th.

[tolakram]

Yea 13 crapola storms. Can't hang on to convection for More then 2-3 hrs.

Except for a long lived Major and a hurricane that hit Florida.

I doubt conditions will improve much as well but don't over minimize what we've had so far. The expectation is for the season to end near normal, and so far it appears normal from my vantage point.

[gatorcane]

Day 10 of 12Z Euro would be a dangerous looking map as far as the SE US is concerned should there be anything tropical below that upper high:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=221

Of course, this looks totally different from the 0Z day 10 and we're talking out in fantasyland. So, I'm not at all expecting this to verify closely. However, IF it were to, then it would leave the door open.

Today's EC shows just the opposite with trough after trough diving down into the Western Atlantic, animation from day 5 to day 10 below. That pattern would recurve anything that tried to approach the SE US from the east.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with development of the Caribbean system yet again in the long-range. It develops from a wave that moves off of Africa this Friday which traverses a very low latitude across the MDR to a position just SE of the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours. Animation from 192 to 384 hours below: