2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Blown Away]

Notice the EPAC churning out another significant storm during same timeframe... Seems when modeling develops an EPAC system the Atlantic system fails to verify...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/777962194843512832




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/777964450628370432

[WeatherEmperor]

:uarrow: Notice the EPAC churning out another significant storm during same timeframe... Seems when modeling develops an EPAC system the Atlantic system fails to verify...

That seems to be happening a lot the last few years. I think for development chances to increase on the Caribbean side, the monsoon trough has to really move deeply into the Caribbean...not just linger near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica coast. I guess we will find out next month right?

[gatorcane]

What the GFS is developing in the Caribbean has nothing to do with the monsoon trough. The Caribbean storm develops from a tropical wave that exists Africa this Friday. Question is if the wave makes it to the Caribbean will conditions there be favorable for development?

Regarding Florida, yes October is the month where South Florida get hits by cyclones the most (even more than August and September) where most originate from the south (Caribbean/Gulf).

[Alyono]

This is the same feature that the MU made into a monster yesterday. The difference between the monster runs, this run, and the no development runs is how much time it spends over South America

[gatorcane]

The wave shows up on the 12Z ECMWF also approaching the southern Lesser Antilles on this loop from 192 to 240 hours:

[blp]

The CMC has it as well. They have been showing this since yesterday. By staying weak it will be able to make it across. If it ramps up it is OTS with this current pattern. Let's see what the 18z GFS has.


FWIW the FIM is also showing a sharp trough.

[toad strangler]

.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has once again the Caribbean scenario.(234 hours) over the ABC islands.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is stronger than the 12Z GFS run. Looks to have a strengthening storm south of Jamaica at 300 hours heading WNW, same wave that moves off Africa later this week and timeframe is coming in

[WeatherEmperor]

348 hrs




Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

What about going thru the Yucatan channel? But as we know very long range is pure entertainment.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a Wilma-esque like track with a strengthening hurricane turning NE over the Yucatan channel way out at 384 hours:

[cycloneye]

Well not quite Yucatan Channel but Pinar del Rio,Cuba.

[blp]

18Z GFS is stronger than the 12Z GFS run. Looks to have a strengthening storm south of Jamaica at 300 hours heading WNW, same wave that moves off Africa later this week and timeframe is coming in

Yes, this time misses SA. Interesting can't remember something starting out that far south other than Ivan 2004.

[WeatherEmperor]

384 hrs. Pure fantasy




Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

Full loop from 192 to 384 hours. Look just SE of the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours where the low starts to gradually form and head west across the southern Caribbean.

[blp]

Full loop from 192 to 384 hours. Look just SE of the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours where the low starts to gradually form and head west across the southern Caribbean.

[g]http://s9.postimg.org/t6dpb9ejj/ad6c8d16_8e3a_486d_b3e4_0523c8c5797a.gif[/img]

Gatorcane, when was the last time we had a track like that developing just off the SA coast?

[Alyono]

Full loop from 192 to 384 hours. Look just SE of the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours where the low starts to gradually form and head west across the southern Caribbean.

[g]http://s9.postimg.org/t6dpb9ejj/ad6c8d16_8e3a_486d_b3e4_0523c8c5797a.gif[/img]

Gatorcane, when was the last time we had a track like that developing just off the SA coast?

Isidore developed there in 2002.

Felix bombed out into a cat 5 not too far north of South America, damaging the aircraft in the process

[blp]

Full loop from 192 to 384 hours. Look just SE of the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours where the low starts to gradually form and head west across the southern Caribbean.

[g]http://s9.postimg.org/t6dpb9ejj/ad6c8d16_8e3a_486d_b3e4_0523c8c5797a.gif[/img]

Gatorcane, when was the last time we had a track like that developing just off the SA coast?

Isidore developed there in 2002.

Felix bombed out into a cat 5 not too far north of South America, damaging the aircraft in the process

Yeah I remember tracking that one now. Affected Northern Gulf coast after getting smashed by shear into the Yucatan. I remember the northerly shear was crazy. It was a CAT 3 at one point.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif