Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[gatorcane]

Yep out through 126 hours vort is more defined than 12Z. Still shows a very low latitude track

[gatorcane]

Ut oh. Vort is much stronger and more north than 12Z. This could end up a big storm in the Caribbean on this run. Out through 168 hours so far.

[TheStormExpert]

Already looks like a developed tropical cyclone approaching the southern Lesser Antilles @168hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

Ut oh. Vort is much stronger and much more north than 12Z. This could end up a big storm in the Caribbean on this run. Out through 156 hours so far

even looks like it has a tropical cyclone before the caribbean, that could be really ugly farther west. I'm starting to think that maybe this will be the big one this year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[gatorcane]

500mb steering before truncation. That big weakness over the Central Atlantic is what causes it to miss South America and gain some latitude. But the system is so far south so it can't recurve there.

[Hurricaneman]

yes but that big ridge west of it will make it stay south of Hispaniola and maybe Cuba which would be awful in the GOM if it were to avoid those islands

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[gatorcane]

Heading NW at 210 hours in the Eastern Caribbean. Might it hit the weakness? Luis might be heading for Puerto Rico?

[Alyono]

slows this down significantly and turns it more northward, looks like PR or the DR this run

[gatorcane]

Wow pretty amazing that even though this wave is so far south it still hits a massive weakness which may recurve it. Lets see how the run ends.

240 hours heading NW

[Hurricaneman]

we have a Marilyn 1995 type track this run

[gatorcane]

Up and out - GFS recurves north of Hispaniola/Puerto Rico.

[toad strangler]

Late hour Windshield wiper modeling
in full effect.

[blp]

Can't wait to see the ensembles on this run. Someshing tells me this is an outlier run.

[Hurricaneman]

I would wait until Saturday or Sunday before i give any definitive forecast because the models are going to be all over the place in the Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Alyono]

I could see that track in late October or November

NOT in late September or early October

[hcane27]

As the saying goes ... "Hide and Watch" ... my early money is on a Hispaniola slam , then out to sea , southeast of Bermuda ..... if it survives the "slam"

not anything to considered an official forecast ....

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[toad strangler]

I could see that track in late October or November

NOT in late September or early October

We have seen that entire scope today. Hook in a bunker, down the middle of the fairway , and heavy slice into the forest. No surprise.

[blp]

Majority of the 18z ensembles keep it in the Carribean. You have 5 members north of Puerto Rico. Let's see if this is a new trend or just an outlier.

[Hurricaneman]

makes me wonder if the NHC is going to mention this in their 8am outlook

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[abajan]

makes me wonder if the NHC is going to mention this in their 8am outlook

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Possibly. If not at 8 AM, I think it'll get a mention sometime tomorrow. Incidentally, the S2K disclaimer is no longer required. Since it just makes each page longer to scroll, it would be better to omit it.