Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS is more west this run so far in the Caribbean. Heading NW towards Hispaniola at 180 hours:

Yep...headed for the shredder at 198 hours. Big weakness to the north. It should continue north on the other side of the DR. Maybe New England threat of the high builds back in.

[Hurricaneman]

Obviously premature to simply dismiss the GFS, but it's representation at 180hrs just looks .... weird. Two gargantuan lows spinning at 80W and 60W. No similarity at all with EURO.

But seems be slowly coming back towards the euro

[USTropics]

Landfalling hurricane over eastern DR at 204 hours:

[gatorcane]

Obviously premature to simply dismiss the GFS, but it's representation at 180hrs just looks .... weird. Two gargantuan lows spinning at 80W and 60W. No similarity at all with EURO.

Agreed no other global model show those two garagantuan lows. It seems highly suspect.

[TheStormExpert]

These models have been just downright HORRENDOUS this season, the GFS and Euro upgrades have only proven to worsen the skill of both models.

[SouthFLTropics]

I got a feeling this is going to get shoved into the middle Atlantic somewhere on this run. Outer Banks to Delmarva.

[sma10]

So, in what has become a 2016 tradition, the EURO and GFS are right now as clear as mud. Euro on 10/1 has it way down just off the SA coast, while GFS has it approaching the SE Bahamas, right after slamming into, what I like to call, the Caribbean Magnet

Game on, I guess. (If the 2016 tradition continues, the winner will be .... neither)

[USTropics]

Obviously premature to simply dismiss the GFS, but it's representation at 180hrs just looks .... weird. Two gargantuan lows spinning at 80W and 60W. No similarity at all with EURO.

Agreed no other global model show those two garagantuan lows. It seems highly suspect.

500mb heights tells the story between the GFS and ECMWF. Same time frame between the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS:

18z GFS:


12z ECMWF:

[USTropics]

Ignoring the parade of lows on the CMC, upper heights at 240 hours more inline with the ECMWF:

[sma10]

The CMC - good grief. We'd be thru the whole alphabet before the end of September.

[USTropics]

18z GFS run has a sharp recurve after impacting Hispaniola, moving even ENE to the south of Bermuda:

[sma10]

The best part of this run though is the Gulf system that develops at hr 222 and does an absolutely perfect 100hr counter-clockwise piroutte

[OntarioEggplant]

Like when it was sharply recurving Hermine East of Florida, the GFS is going to be wrong again.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well my 18z prediction didn't pan out. That's what I get for betting when a temperamental global model is dealing the cards. Either the GFS wins big with the two huge lows over the CONUS and Atlantic or it busts big time. Track wise, I have a hard time going against the rest of the models.

[USTropics]

Time to start watching the coast of Africa. One thing we'll have to monitor is the possibility of two vorticities emerging off the coast (one to the far south, and one around 15N in association with the monsoonal trough).



The 18z GFS also increased the forward speed of P39L. The Leeward Islands could start to feel the effects as soon as early Wednesday of next week from this feature.

[Macrocane]

Models are crazy this year, don't know wether to laugh or cry
CMC run is hilarious.
Anyway, there seems to be some model support at least in the genesis of the cyclone, it's worth watching.

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south of
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Lisa, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is expected
to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to
25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could
be conducive for some gradual development of this system over the
western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Beven

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Almost a duplicate of the 2 PM TWO.

[USTropics]

Still two distinct groups on the 18z GFS ensemble run (scenario 1 is a recurve near PR, scenario 2 is a Caribbean cruiser towards Cuba).

I would say the ensembles are more concentrated in the Caribbean this run vs the previous 3 runs.

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF Karl loop shows this system organizing in the MDR when it is still pretty far to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Hit the "fwd" button to start the loop.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[hurricanehunter69]

No way will I argue on how unconducive conditions have been in the MDR this year. However, The entire meteorological community is buzzing big time about this potential event. I have to believe that everyone is 1)forecasting a potential beast in the NW Caribbean and 2) A Conus landfall?