Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Florida1118]

:uarrow: The GFS is overly-bullish that is why they are not biting yet.

Not really. The GFS developing a weak storm in a few days is hardly "bullish". The difference between the Euro, which has a tropical cyclone at Day 7, and the GFS, which has a Tropical Cyclone at Day 4, hardly makes the GFS "bullish".

[Steve]

:uarrow: The GFS is overly-bullish that is why they are not biting yet.

Not really. The GFS developing a weak storm in a few days is hardly "bullish". The difference between the Euro, which has a tropical cyclone at Day 7, and the GFS, which has a Tropical Cyclone at Day 4, hardly makes the GFS "bullish".

That's correct. It's SE of Cabo Verde Islands, and they're giving it a 20% chance in 5 days. They have time to nudge upwards as or if it becomes appropriate. NHC rarely goes rash, and the GFS isn't really "bullish" until the Western Caribbean which isn't at all within the 5 day window.

[gatorcane]

12z CMC

http://i.imgur.com/JWctzpE.png

The CMC brings the cyclone north because of a weakness created by some spurious low near Florida that it is probably overdeveloping. If you take this low out of the picture, the CMC is actually pretty close to the GFS on a 500mb ridge that may develop over Florida and maybe the Gulf. So while the GFS scenario of a cyclone into the Yucatan without feeling a weakness seems far-fetched, it is not out of the question. Remember the Euro has been showing a large weakness over the SE US/Florida/Eastern Gulf by day 10. Let's see if it continues to show this or shows a big ridge instead which would drive the cyclone west into the Yucatan.

[chaser1]

Latest 12 GFS implying "Earl redux"??? Sure, a viable possibility but while buying a beef jerky at 7-ll last night, some dude I met named Alfonz suggested Cienfuegos, Cuba. Hmmm GFS vs. Alfonz? I remain undecided.

Here's my take away regarding this Pouch:

Obviously, there is little other than model forecasts to base any hypothesis on, other than the obvious Water Vapor depiction of the mountain of dry sinking air presently sitting over the entire E. Atlantic west of this Pouch feature, and of course climatology itself. As inconsistent as each model has proven this year (especially with regards to intensity forecast), I'm a lot less comfortable believing that I or anyone has much of a handle on what track or intensity this system will ultimately have.

I have to think that present conditions are no more conducive in the far E. Atlantic than what my own eyes see or beyond what any model would suggest. After 4 or 5 days everything else is predicated on whether this Pouch will begin to organize near the Lesser Antilles as modeled. I'm still willing to bet on the overwhelming model consensus (right up to about 6 days, and NOT beyond LOL). It's worth noting that in spite of most storms that struggle in the E. Caribbean basin, nearly 2 months ago Earl continued to organize. In fact this system would seem to fit Earl's overall track very nicely except for the fact that it'll be almost Oct verses Earl which cruised the Caribbean in early August. That leads one to also consider Hermine's westward track, right up to the point where that "convoluted mess" eventually made a sharp right turn. In fact another storm, Colin (disguised as a washed out cold front) also tracked north toward the N. Gulf this year.

Essentially I'd guess there's a very strong chance that a Tropical Depression (or perhaps something a bit more catastrophic) will be impacting the N. Gulf coast in 12-14 days. I know this much, there'll likely be an increased degree of model watching over the next several days by those living in Louisiana, Alabama, or the Florida Panhandle. With any luck though, each and every model will once again simply drop any suggestion of a storm forming in the E. Caribbean and we'll all happily be able to return our attention to our nations' mind-numbing political banter & hyperbole

[SouthFLTropics]

That's 26.99mb at 914. That's got to be top 2 or 3 strongest October storms ever. Damn. Somebody's going to pay in this scenario. Because even if weakening, the size and potential surge it will have residual from peak will be crazy. Gonna be some nervous people around by next weekend if anything remotely like this happens.

I think the deepest in Atlantic history was Wilma, a mid-October storm, no? Something like 882mb? In exactly that same area.

Yeah. Wilma was 882. I'm not sure on Caribbean in October behind her, but there were some beasts including Mitch at its peak.

Wilma, Gilbert, and Mitch are the three that come to mind in October for the Western Caribbean. This has been the breeding ground for some monsters in the past.

[jlauderdal]

[quote="tolakram"]I do not trust the GFS at all past 192 hours but will include the end of the run here. No idea what the upper air pattern will be by then but it does appear something will be near the islands in 120 hours or thereabouts.

Do you actually trust it at 192? How about 120?

[abajan]

I think the deepest in Atlantic history was Wilma, a mid-October storm, no? Something like 882mb? In exactly that same area.

Yeah. Wilma was 882. I'm not sure on Caribbean in October behind her, but there were some beasts including Mitch at its peak.

Wilma, Gilbert, and Mitch are the three that come to mind in October for the Western Caribbean. This has been the breeding ground for some monsters in the past.

Gilbert was indeed powerful in that area but it was there in September, not October.

EDIT: I just remembered another hurricane which became a monster in that region: Janet. But like Gilbert, that occurred in September.

[tolakram]

Do you actually trust it at 192? How about 120?

I don't think it's answerable as a simple yes and no. Every model loses accuracy past 0 hours, some more than others. GFS has been pretty bad at 500mb at 5 days.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro has it deep down near SA again.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF is much weaker and a tad south it seems.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2016092312&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=100

[Blown Away]

Not uncommon for October NW Caribbean systems to get pushed W or S into CA, but when they feel weakness and go N, Florida/Cuba/Bahamas is normally the prime target area... Always a few rare exceptions...

[PTrackerLA]

Yep barely anything to see at 144 hrs on the Euro, hmmm.

[tolakram]

Euro still has no real run to run consistency.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro at 168hrs, no development

[Alyono]

and our pice of dog you know what EC in the face of all other models, has trended weaker

[gatorcane]

The Euro has a ton of ridging over the Gulf and SE US at 168 hours. Whatever the Euro ends up developing (if it even does) may head straight into Central America

[OntarioEggplant]

Ugh here we go again. Hermine modeling redux: Southern Boogaloo

[Blown Away]

Little slower than 00z through 168...

[gatorcane]

Out to 192 hours and just like that the Euro drops development, nothing but a wave heading west through the southern Caribbean and into Central America.

[Blown Away]

GFS Cat 5... Euro Tropical wave...