Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro says , GFS says ...The battle rages on!!!

[gatorcane]

Euro says , GFS says ...The battle rages on!!!

Even if the Euro developed a CAT 5 like the GFS, guess where it would be going? Starting to wonder if whatever does develop ends up in Central America...

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF into Central America.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2016092312&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=100

[stormlover2013]

there is no battle, nothing has developed.....what I will say with the over pattern strong riding in the SE....the could be a mexico or texas storm if something did develop.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking it may have a fair shot at developing, but not until it moves west of 65W. Too much dry, dusty air until it passes the Lesser Antilles. After that, I'm predicting a track somewhere between Nicaragua and east of Bermuda. I hope to narrow that down by a few miles as my confidence that will even develop grows. If it doesn't develop before it reaches Central America, then it may eventually be an East Pac storm.

[gatorcane]

Wow look at the 500mb ridge on the 12Z EC at 240 hours, nothing is going north through that folks, that looks more like July than October.

[tolakram]

That kind of ridge on October 3rd? Could happen I suppose.

[LarryWx]

What an impressive ridge on the Euro in the E US days 7-10! The Euro tends to overdo these in the 6-10 day period and I would take the strength and duration of that ridge with a big grain, of course. IF it were to come close to verifying, its solution for Pouch 39L is quite believable. However, if the pouch were to remain that far south, that would leave room for a potential "ridge over troubled waters" type of homebrew somewhere north of the pouch (maybe near FL). JB often talks about this kind of setup. As it stands now, nothing like that is on the Euro although the crazy CMC has a TC and the GFS has a hint of something around day 8. But that's for another thread I suppose.

[sma10]

.....And this is why NHC keeps the odds down at 20%. I don't blame them one bit.

[Emmett_Brown]

Does anyone know if the 12z Euro ensembles agree well with the operational run?

[LarryWx]

Does anyone know if the 12z Euro ensembles agree well with the operational run?

Nobody knows yet since they don't come out for the 6-10 for another hour or so.

[SFLcane]

Euro drops development Lol...

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA buries his wave in the SW Caribbean and also shows a large 500mb ridge over the SE US, NW Caribbean, and Florida in a week's time. So global models have come into pretty good agreement on a large ridge in a week which would keep this wave south in the Caribbean. I wonder if the 18Z GFS will drop development like a bag of bricks?

[wxmann_91]

and our pice of dog you know what EC in the face of all other models, has trended weaker

This time the Euro might be correct... models, and especially the GFS, tend to underforecast ridging (even more significant given we're dealing with such low latitudes). Also EPAC has been favored for development over the Atlantic; if you extrap the Euro forecast (I know, bad practice) it might develop into something in the EPAC.

P.S. Typhoon Rule with Megi slamming into China also favors E Coast ridging 7-10 days out.

[SFLcane]

Sorry guys not this season...we all have a perception of the Atlantic but need to face reality the basin has just been pure garbage last few seasons hostile every were you look. Plenty season left sooo we shall see

[ronjon]

This is all highly speculative at 10-14 days out. let's see if it develops over the next 3-5 days and go from there.

[ronjon]

Anybody post the 12z UKMET?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS Cat 5... Euro Tropical wave...

I'm going to bet both scenarios are wrong. We saw this often with Hermine too, with the GFS being far too aggressive and the ECMWF failing to catch development. A blend of the two scenarios seems the most likely.

[Alyono]

and our pice of dog you know what EC in the face of all other models, has trended weaker

This time the Euro might be correct... models, and especially the GFS, tend to underforecast ridging (even more significant given we're dealing with such low latitudes). Also EPAC has been favored for development over the Atlantic; if you extrap the Euro forecast (I know, bad practice) it might develop into something in the EPAC.

P.S. Typhoon Rule with Megi slamming into China also favors E Coast ridging 7-10 days out.

The track may end up correct. However, its convective processes may be causing issues with development

[Alyono]

JMA has never developed this, at least on the free 2.5 degree version (that resolution is so coarse that a TC may be smoothed out)