ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#201 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:44 am

ignore HWRF. It develops both area of vorticity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#202 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:45 am

FWIW, 6z NAVGEM rides in on the high side closer to PR / DOM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#203 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:46 am

Alyono wrote:ignore HWRF. It develops both area of vorticity


The area near 37W is the area thats going to pop according to most of the models. Any area farther east doesn't stand much of a chance so yep the HWRF is garbage

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#204 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:48 am

toad strangler wrote:FWIW, 6z NAVGEM rides in on the high side closer to PR / DOM


The NAVGEM model always tends to be the most NE of the models and is usually wrong

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#205 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:50 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
toad strangler wrote:FWIW, 6z NAVGEM rides in on the high side closer to PR / DOM


The NAVGEM model always tends to be the most NE of the models and is usually wrong

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Thats why I said FWIW :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#206 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:53 am

Ivanhater wrote:If you are in the gfs track now I would feel somewhat ok....I'm worried about the models in 4 to 5 days say


Models 10 days out on Hermine had a hurricane in the eastern Gulf. Just as there's no guarantee they'll be right, there's also no guarantee they'll be wrong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#207 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:04 am

USTropics wrote:Looks like a SW Florida landfall coming up, maybe up the coast? 946 mbs, 264 hours, take it with a grain of salt.

Image

Image


If that grain of salt comes to fruition at 946 mbar it would be the strongest hurricane ever to landfall Key West and the lower keys ... The previous unofficial record estimate would be 964 mb during the hurricane of storm 9/21/1948 another storm out of the Western Caribbean .... Also remember that the great labor day hurricane of 1935 landfall the Upper Keys...The impact at Key West was limited to tropical storm conditions...Rich
Last edited by weatherwindow on Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#208 Postby robbielyn » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:12 am

weatherwindow wrote:
USTropics wrote:Looks like a SW Florida landfall coming up, maybe up the coast? 946 mbs, 264 hours, take it with a grain of salt.

Image

Image


If that grain of salt comes to fruition at 946 mbar it would be the strongest hurricane ever to landfall Key West and the lower keys ... The previous unofficial record estimate would be 938 mbar during the great hurricane of 1846 another October storm out of the Western Caribbean .... Also remember that the great labor day hurricane of 1935 landfall the Upper Keys...The impact at Key West was limited to tropical storm conditions...Rich

usually when models give this solution it never comes to fruition probably why poster said we should be ok. it improbable but not impossible. I certainly dont buy this solution. if it hits florida id say panhandle or miami not in between.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#209 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:13 am

GFS - Go Get Florida. Every year GFS aims at Florida. It gets so bad that I know I'm in the clear if GFS shows it hitting Floida. :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#210 Postby JPmia » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:16 am

cajunwx wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
cajunwx wrote:
For one run.... 2 weeks away... ok.


you guys/gals maybe looking at the one run this morning but go back and look where the models were yesterday and the day before...you are correct that one run isnt a trend so dont look at one run, i dont


You can't pick and choose what to look at to fit your narrative of it heading towards you, the fact is there is no trend.


Can we cut out the disdain some show others for expressing their opinion based on how they look at the data? I've loved this board for well over 10 years, but this stuff happens all the time and it gets old quick.. trends or not let's just enjoy the analysis and appreciate everyone's interest in the tropics. On topic.. I think at this point the Ensembles seem to be the best way to view this at the moment.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#211 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:19 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:GFS - Go Get Florida. Every year GFS aims at Florida. It gets so bad that I know I'm in the clear if GFS shows it hitting Floida. :roll:
yep...we were nailed by a very intense hermine this year now this one...one of these days we will get it though
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#212 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:24 am

Any Jamaican posters here? Remarkable how consistent the GFS has been in raking the island.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#213 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:38 am

robbielyn wrote:
weatherwindow wrote:
USTropics wrote:Looks like a SW Florida landfall coming up, maybe up the coast? 946 mbs, 264 hours, take it with a grain of salt.



If that grain of salt comes to fruition at 946 mbar it would be the strongest hurricane ever to landfall Key West and the lower keys ... The previous unofficial record estimate would be 938 mbar during the great hurricane of 1846 another October storm out of the Western Caribbean .... Also remember that the great labor day hurricane of 1935 landfall the Upper Keys...The impact at Key West was limited to tropical storm conditions...Rich

usually when models give this solution it never comes to fruition probably why poster said we should be ok. it improbable but not impossible. I certainly dont buy this solution. if it hits florida id say panhandle or miami not in between.


In my previous post I was not commenting on the probability of 97L landfalling Key West I was simply commenting on the fact that if it did it would represent a modern record low pressure.Hence my tacit agreement with a grain of salt comment I certainly hope for my own sake that your perception of the models proves to be correct...Rich
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#214 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:44 am

Looking at the upper air charts and trends, I can't help but compare this to Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Almost the same time of year and position too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#215 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:55 am

That's a pinhole eye. :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#216 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:09 am

57 I see you! How are you feeling about Florida?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#217 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:16 am

06Z NAVGEM 180 hours moving NW. Like the GFS, the model has sped up the timeframe.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#218 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:20 am

The 12zGfs starts in a few, what will it show
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#219 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:21 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The 12zGfs starts in a few, what will it show


I will guess that it will trend toward the ECMWF on a OTS track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#220 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:35 am

My east of Bermuda prediction looks good now. :)
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