ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

My question is what happens if this cutoff low forms and moves more towards the Ohio Valley instead of the southeast, does that mean a farther west solution

[Christiana]

I know this is a long way out yet, but if this went north into the Gulf the timing puts it in the middle of Cruising the Coast. We are expecting thousands of folks and their fancy cars to come to the MS coastline. Could really screw things up.

I don't want to ever wish anything bad on Mississippi, so if it's Cruisin the Coast, yeah there will be all kinds of classic cars. However, if it was Scrapin' the Coast... ☠

Just kidding. Great Levi video this morning as per Storms Expert's link. He brings up the interesting idea of the rarity of storm interaction with the North Atlantic Coast of South America which is almost never seen. I think it will be slightly north of there, but it was notable.

Cruising the Coast is precisely one of many reasons I am watching this so closely. I own a business in the Old Town district of Bay St Louis and the timing of this is awful. In 2004 we had a tropical storm, a minor one, Timothy if I recall and of course it rendered Cruisin a non event. ...and then we all know what happened in 2005. The revenue from Cruising amounts to about 25% of my annual income. If this storm makes it into the Gulf I am royally screwed. Again. Folks just won't come anywhere near here, nor do I blame them. Praying for a recurve and no land interaction anywhere, perhaps just something fun to track. I realize that is unlikely, I am really starting to worry for Jamaica, but it is early still. I remain glued to these boards with my Flood Insurance paid up and my Hurricane Kit in good shape: Just. In. Case.

[abajan]

Good discussion by Jeff Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... -caribbean

looking at the ensembles of the Euro on his page, the Euro ensembles are all over the place and cant be trusted but looking at the current motion I believe that Ajaban should prepare for a storm ...

I am, but I still don't think it's likely to be anywhere near as powerful as Tomas when that storm's center passed just to the south of us with 70 mph sustained winds. We got gusts well into hurricane force with that (even though the Wikipedia page doesn't state that). From a few days back, my feeling has been that it won't have sustained winds of anymore than about 55 mph when it passes here. We might get occasional hurricane force gusts but nothing to cause major damage. Those are my thoughts now but they can change according to how 97L progresses. Either way, Barbados, the southern Windward Islands and Trinidad & Tobago will probably be placed under a tropical storm watch sometime tomorrow afternoon. The northeastern coast of Venezuela may also included in that watch.

[Hurricaneman]

Good discussion by Jeff Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... -caribbean

looking at the ensembles of the Euro on his page, the Euro ensembles are all over the place and cant be trusted but looking at the current motion I believe that Ajaban should prepare for a storm ...

I am, but I still don't think it's likely to be anywhere near as powerful as Tomas when that storm's center passed just to the south of us with 70 mph sustained winds. We got gusts well into hurricane force with that (even though the Wikipedia page doesn't state that). From a few days back, my feeling has been that it won't have sustained winds of anymore than about 55 mph when it passes here. We might get occasional hurricane force gusts but nothing to cause major damage. Those are my thoughts now but they can change according to how 97L progresses. Either way, Barbados, the southern Windward Islands and Trinidad & Tobago will probably be placed under a tropical storm watch sometime tomorrow afternoon. The northeastern coast of Venezuela may also included in that watch.

unfortunately you wont get watches\warnings until its declared a tropical cyclone

[psyclone]

I know this is a long way out yet, but if this went north into the Gulf the timing puts it in the middle of Cruising the Coast. We are expecting thousands of folks and their fancy cars to come to the MS coastline. Could really screw things up.

I don't want to ever wish anything bad on Mississippi, so if it's Cruisin the Coast, yeah there will be all kinds of classic cars. However, if it was Scrapin' the Coast... ☠

Just kidding. Great Levi video this morning as per Storms Expert's link. He brings up the interesting idea of the rarity of storm interaction with the North Atlantic Coast of South America which is almost never seen. I think it will be slightly north of there, but it was notable.

Cruising the Coast is precisely one of many reasons I am watching this so closely. I own a business in the Old Town district of Bay St Louis and the timing of this is awful. In 2004 we had a tropical storm, a minor one, Timothy if I recall and of course it rendered Cruisin a non event. ...and then we all know what happened in 2005. The revenue from Cruising amounts to about 25% of my annual income. If this storm makes it into the Gulf I am royally screwed. Again. Folks just won't come anywhere near here, nor do I blame them. Praying for a recurve and no land interaction anywhere, perhaps just something fun to track. I realize that is unlikely, I am really starting to worry for Jamaica, but it is early still. I remain glued to these boards with my Flood Insurance paid up and my Hurricane Kit in good shape: Just. In. Case.

Trends should offer you some level of comfort (as much as possible at this point). There's a chance this avoids the Gulf entirely...and the US for that matter.

[Hurricaneman]

Its going to depend on an cutoff low, if it indeed forms that would actually cause this to move away from the US but if the cutoff is weaker or doesn't form thats another story

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 ...

A tropical wave over the east Tropical Atlantic extends from
06N37W to a 1010 mb surface low centered near 08N37W to 14N35W.
The wave is moving W near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This
wave still coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in model
guidance. The wave is the leading edge of a surge of deep
moisture reaching all the way E to the African coast in TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is seen within 90 nm either side of a line from 09N41W to 14N37W. ...

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 7.7°N 39.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[hurricanes1234]

Good discussion by Jeff Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... -caribbean

looking at the ensembles of the Euro on his page, the Euro ensembles are all over the place and cant be trusted but looking at the current motion I believe that Ajaban should prepare for a storm ...

I am, but I still don't think it's likely to be anywhere near as powerful as Tomas when that storm's center passed just to the south of us with 70 mph sustained winds. We got gusts well into hurricane force with that (even though the Wikipedia page doesn't state that). From a few days back, my feeling has been that it won't have sustained winds of anymore than about 55 mph when it passes here. We might get occasional hurricane force gusts but nothing to cause major damage. Those are my thoughts now but they can change according to how 97L progresses. Either way, Barbados, the southern Windward Islands and Trinidad & Tobago will probably be placed under a tropical storm watch sometime tomorrow afternoon. The northeastern coast of Venezuela may also included in that watch.

Wow that'd be very bad if that were to verify. A lot of places in Trinidad and Tobago flood easily with just isolated thunderstorms, far less for a possible depression/tropical storm.

[Gustywind]

Good discussion by Jeff Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... -caribbean

looking at the ensembles of the Euro on his page, the Euro ensembles are all over the place and cant be trusted but looking at the current motion I believe that Ajaban should prepare for a storm ...

I am, but I still don't think it's likely to be anywhere near as powerful as Tomas when that storm's center passed just to the south of us with 70 mph sustained winds. We got gusts well into hurricane force with that (even though the Wikipedia page doesn't state that). From a few days back, my feeling has been that it won't have sustained winds of anymore than about 55 mph when it passes here. We might get occasional hurricane force gusts but nothing to cause major damage. Those are my thoughts now but they can change according to how 97L progresses. Either way, Barbados, the southern Windward Islands and Trinidad & Tobago will probably be placed under a tropical storm watch sometime tomorrow afternoon. The northeastern coast of Venezuela may also included in that watch.

Good post Abajan as usual my friend . If 97L continues its trek towards the Lesser Antilles and shows signs of intensification more than the Windwards Islands all the others islands even the Leewards Islands should continue to monitor 97L. We must not let our guard down. Low rider pose often trouble in much of the Lesser Antilles. We're in September we should say " never say never in the tropics". Stay tuned Abajan and keep us informed .

[RickM]

This is unbelievable. I still have yet to cancel my Cayman plans. I still have hope this crashes into SA or spins into the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

The Euro recurves this even farther east. The GFS is east of Florida. Suddenly it is very quiet around here. It still appears some folks in the Caribbean are going to take a beating from this.

[hcane27]

Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
#156 Postby hcane27 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:06 pm

As the saying goes ... "Hide and Watch" ... my early money is on a Hispaniola slam , then out to sea , southeast of Bermuda ..... if it survives the "slam"

not anything to considered an official forecast ....

The above was posted 4 days ago ... looking more and more likely ....

[sma10]

Yeah, looks like the whole WPac teleconnection thing isn't going to work out. Not a ridge in sight, if the model is to be believed.

[LarryWx]

Note the dramatic difference in the progged 10/1 12Z upper level setup over the E US between the Euro runs of 12Z Fri (upper high) and 12Z Sun (cutoff upper low):

Fri 12Z run hour 192 map with upper high: (central KY has 500 mb heights near 590 dm)
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_9.png

Sun 12Z run hour 144 map with cutoff upper low: (central KY has 500 mb heights only near 568 dm)
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_7.png

[Hurricaneman]

Yeah, looks like the whole WPac teleconnection thing isn't going to work out. Not a ridge in sight, if the model is to be believed.

teleconnections don't always come to pass but most times they do so I'm starting to wonder if the Cutoff low the models have is bogus

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Ntxw]

The big trough isn't fake, it is a feature that is in the process of coming into the US eastern conus in a few days. The question is will it hang around being trapped by ridging to the north (so both cases are realistic) as 97L develops or does the trough lift out as ridging builds in?

[rickybobby]

My crazy neighbor isn't freaking out so this isn't coming to Florida lol. I wonder if he knows about this invest.

[stormreader]

One things is sure, forward speed of 25 mph is really booking it in the tropics, as is easily discernible in the loop.

[robbielyn]

One things is sure, forward speed of 25 mph is really booking it in the tropics, as is easily discernible in the loop.

What is that thin stream connecting remnant low of lisa all the way down to 97L?