ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#581 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:31 am

00Z COAMPS run - still no recurve

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#582 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:37 am

00z UKMET graphical output, sharp dive SW into SA then lifts NW:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#583 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:47 am

06z GFS through 54 hours similar to the 00z operational run, strengthening system heading towards the Lesser Antilles.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#584 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:04 am

Through 102 hours, 06z is slightly slower and about 20mb weaker than the 00z run:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#585 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:07 am

A little S of 00z at 102 hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#586 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:12 am

Didn't take long to catch up in surface pressure, down to 949mb at 126 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#587 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:20 am

Looks like the northerly turn commences at 144hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#588 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:21 am

Headed for DR:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#589 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:22 am

Landfall 162 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#590 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:24 am

I really don't by at all this RI as It nears the Caribbean. 06z GFS looks like sharper recurve before devastating Haiti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#591 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:26 am

If the Euro is sniffing out an upper pattern change the GFS might not pick up on it until less than 150 hours. Full run and it's just past Haiti.

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Being pulled west by a low over Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#592 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:40 am

Looks like the ECM is depicting a blocking pattern with mid-level low over Arkansas and slower movement on 97L. The mid-level low is acting to pump up ridging somewhat to the east. Fun times ahead tracking this storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#593 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:55 am

ECM Ensembles for the most part take 97L to the western Carib. and most from there into the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#594 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:16 am

6Z GFS

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#595 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:47 am

Dean4Storms wrote:ECM Ensembles for the most part take 97L to the western Carib. and most from there into the Gulf.


Looks like a solid 2/3 of Euro ensembles take it into the gulf with many showing a very strong storm. Quite interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#596 Postby alienstorm » Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:50 am

This much is clear beyond 5 days it is any ones guess, did notice that the 8 AM TWO shows the 5 day cone to South of Puerto Rico, where in the past it was all the way to the Central Caribbean. A sign of a slow down ...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#597 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:52 am

GFS
Euro
CMC
NAVGEM

All on the same page IRT N turn. Impressive.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#598 Postby centuryv58 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:03 am

toad strangler wrote:GFS
Euro
CMC
NAVGEM

All on the same page IRT N turn. Impressive.


Why does the post two above say different?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#599 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:04 am

Euro Ens.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#600 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:07 am

tolakram wrote:Euro Ens.



Yep, I should have included the word "Operational" :)
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