ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ronjon]

Interesting..sometimes the UKMET is an early predictor of the ECM operational run. All eyes will be glued on the 12z ECM run today no doubt.

[sma10]

And if it does take forever to get strong and track similarly to the 12Z UKMET (almost to 76W moving NW), that's very likely trouble for the CONUS, especially FL.

Seems quite a bit further west than the 00Z UKMET right?

Yes, the 12Z UKMET is a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 0Z UKMET!

Looks like the key time period is at 72hrs. The 72hr genesis position of this UKMET output is almost right on top of the GFS 12Z position. So there is agreement to that point in terms of location. For that point on however, UK moves WSW, still at a relatively decent clip; meanwhile GFS slows down and begins the WNW to NW to N motion. Maybe this will all ride on relative strength at 72hrs?

[SeGaBob]

Then maybe east of Bermuda.

Yep, weird how I can predict this stuff.

[sma10]

Then maybe east of Bermuda.

Yep, weird how I can predict this stuff.

LOL - doesn't mean you are right.

[tolakram]

Keep in mind the 0Z Euro, looking at the higher rez pay version, had the storm riding NW somewhat parallel to the coast of Cuba. In each case the model range is way past reliable so we may not know for sure until the end o the week.

[Hurricaneman]

When Alyono says the GFS run is pretty much bogus then it must be discounted now if the ensembles are closer to the Euro then you really have to throw it away but we'll see around 130 if thats the case

When its a battle between the GFS and the Euro the last several years the Euro comes out on top and that's why I'm not giving Florida and the eastern GOM the all clear by any stretch of the imagination

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SouthFLTropics]

Keep in mind the 0Z Euro, looking at the higher rez pay version, had the storm riding NW somewhat parallel to the coast of Cuba. In each case the model range is way past reliable so we may not know for sure until the end o the week.

That was due to the thumb of high pressure to the NE of the storm at that time. It wasn't very big but it was enough to keep it on the NW heading along the Cuban coast. If one were to extrapolate the run further you can see a trough digging from the Midwest so it would likely take a turn to the North sometime beyond 240 hours. The ultimate question is where? IMHO This storm has a David/Floyd hybrid feel to it. Close enough to cause a scare and then lift out at the last minute.

[Blown Away]

Those eastward trends are beginning to worry me here in PR.

Just thinking that, GFS definitely moving E with every run... Hang in there...

[gatorcane]

Why doesn't the GFS move this system more WSW (ala the UKMET) looking at the ridge? Is it me or does it plow right through it...?

[tolakram]

I think Bob paid money to have the GFS get this east of Bermuda and then curve around and back.

This is pure fantasy range.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think Bob paid money to have the GFS get this east of Bermuda and then curve around and back.

This is pure fantasy range.

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/EhsmkiC.gif[/img]

I don't care who you are...That's funny right there!!!

[tpr1967]

Then maybe east of Bermuda.

Latest 12Z GFS has it moving S and E of Bermuda.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=280

[Hurricaneman]

The only reason I can think of of why the GFS is well east of all the other models might have to do with

A. Being to fast with this feature
B. Overblowing this system
C. breaking down the ridge too much which has been a big fault of the GFS

[LarryWx]

Keep in mind the 0Z Euro, looking at the higher rez pay version, had the storm riding NW somewhat parallel to the coast of Cuba. In each case the model range is way past reliable so we may not know for sure until the end o the week.

That was due to the thumb of high pressure to the NE of the storm at that time. It wasn't very big but it was enough to keep it on the NW heading along the Cuban coast. If one were to extrapolate the run further you can see a trough digging from the Midwest so it would likely take a turn to the North sometime beyond 240 hours. The ultimate question is where? IMHO This storm has a David/Floyd hybrid feel to it. Close enough to cause a scare and then lift out at the last minute.

It isn't just the 0Z's Euro actual solution, which could still have recurved east of the CONUS had it gone out further. More importantly to me, is the 0Z Euro (which was a couple of hundred miles W of yesterday's Euro runs) a start of a Euro westward trend that will continue on later runs? Stay tuned. The 0Z EPS being so far west makes me wonder also. Also, the 350 mile WSW shift of the 12Z UKMET from the 0Z UKMET is worrisome for the CONUS.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Then maybe east of Bermuda.

Latest 12Z GFS has it moving S and E of Bermuda.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=280

And then heading straight for the Northeast. Definitely something mucky with this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

The only reason I can think of of why the GFS is well east of all the other models might have to do with

A. Being to fast with this feature
B. Overblowing this system
C. breaking down the ridge too much which has been a big fault of the GFS

I'll take option D...All of the above. Today's Euro will be very interesting.

[tpr1967]

While CMC has it about 400 miles east of mid Atlantic and GFS has it 150-200 miles SE of Bermuda. The 00Z euro has it in the southern Bahamas still.

[TimeZone]

I think Bob paid money to have the GFS get this east of Bermuda and then curve around and back.

This is pure fantasy range.

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/EhsmkiC.gif[/img]

What causes it to turn back towards the W, the last few frames? Can't see that happening.

[Hurricaneman]

While CMC has it about 400 miles east of mid Atlantic and GFS has it 150-200 miles SE of Bermuda. The 00Z euro has it in the southern Bahamas still.

The CMC has a tendency to blow up random lows thats why I take that model with a grain of salt or maybe a whole shaker

[sma10]

Keep in mind the 0Z Euro, looking at the higher rez pay version, had the storm riding NW somewhat parallel to the coast of Cuba. In each case the model range is way past reliable so we may not know for sure until the end o the week.

That was due to the thumb of high pressure to the NE of the storm at that time. It wasn't very big but it was enough to keep it on the NW heading along the Cuban coast. If one were to extrapolate the run further you can see a trough digging from the Midwest so it would likely take a turn to the North sometime beyond 240 hours. The ultimate question is where? IMHO This storm has a David/Floyd hybrid feel to it. Close enough to cause a scare and then lift out at the last minute.

It isn't just the 0Z's Euro actual solution, which could still have recurved east of the CONUS had it gone out further. More importantly to me, is the 0Z Euro (which was a couple of hundred miles W of yesterday's Euro runs) a start of a Euro westward trend that will continue on later runs? Stay tuned. The 0Z EPS being so far west makes me wonder also. Also, the 350 mile WSW shift of the 12Z UKMET from the 0Z UKMET is worrisome for the CONUS.

No doubt, Larry. There appears to be a very big difference between operation runs at this point - pending today's Euro in a little while, of course.