ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[toad strangler]

This GFS run seems fishy. The ECMWF might be on to something.

On to what? Euro has been in the same ballpark IRT the OP.....

[tarheelprogrammer]

This GFS run seems fishy. The ECMWF might be on to something.

On to what? Euro has been in the same ballpark IRT the OP.....

Less of a sharp turn north and more southwest. Then turning north and moving toward the Bahamas. So, they are different that is what I am talking about. EPS is also west.

[toad strangler]

This GFS run seems fishy. The ECMWF might be on to something.

On to what? Euro has been in the same ballpark IRT the OP.....

Less of a sharp turn north and more southwest. Then turning north and moving toward the Bahamas. So, they are different that is what I am talking about. EPS is also west.

12z Euro was quite sharp after a a short stretch of NW....

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM through the NW Bahamas:

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles are not budging from what they have shown the past several runs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

On to what? Euro has been in the same ballpark IRT the OP.....

Less of a sharp turn north and more southwest. Then turning north and moving toward the Bahamas. So, they are different that is what I am talking about. EPS is also west.

12z Euro was quite sharp after a a short stretch of NW....

The timing is what the Euro might be on. The ECMWF and GFS have a difference of over 1,000 miles by 10 days. The GFS blows 97L up into a monster and causes it to turn north quicker and near Bermuda by day 10, whereas the ECMWF has it just off the coast of Cuba and in the Bahamas by day 10. Additionally, the two respestive ensembles also have massive disagreements, with the GFS ensembles mainly showing an OTS solution, whereas the EPS members are generally showing a track much further west. The only agreement I see is that there will be a turn to the north in the Caribbean, the question is to what extend, what time, and what intensity.

[blp]

Btw the 18z GFS has landfall in Maine.

[blp]

This image was posted on Ryan Maue twitter. Look at the Euro Ensembles.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FWIW, I recall hearing in the past that the GFS has a tendency of overdoing systems under convectively-coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKW). Take that with a huge grain of salt as I do not have a source to back that up and I would be glad to be corrected. However, this leads me to think that the ECMWF/UKMET solution of a weaker, further south solution could end up being correct.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Gfdl even more west.




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[toad strangler]

This image was posted on Ryan Maue twitter. Look at the Euro Ensembles.

Heavy West. Obviously this implies that the OP is out to lunch and has been at least a semi theme here today.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFDL 500mb with plenty of ridging north of the Caribbean to drive it west, but if it went out a little further, might start to turn more NW since there is a weakness:

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the Gfs is on an island of its own

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Gfs is on an island of its own

It is odd to see the GFDL less bullish than the GFS isn't it?

[Hurricaneman]

I think the Gfs needs fixing if this goes west more toward the panhandle of Florida or slides up the west coast of Florida because that would be a humongous failure of the model pretty much making it worse than the Canadian model

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Looks like the Gfs is on an island of its own

It is odd to see the GFDL less bullish than the GFS isn't it?

Seems to me that overall the GFDL has been a terrible model but I'm expecting to see many different solutions past 4 days as this is a very complex situation with subtle features that could change the final solution immensely.

[gatorcane]

Even the NASA model is with the ECMWF and UKMET on a track close to SA without blowing it up to a CAT 5. Plus it moves the system slightly WSW also

[Alyono]

This likely will blow up and still move to aruba

[tolakram]

I think the Gfs needs fixing if this goes west more toward the panhandle of Florida or slides up the west coast of Florida because that would be a humongous failure of the model pretty much making it worse than the Canadian model

Well yes, it can be improved, but no, nothing radically wrong with this storm that we haven't seen before. After 5 days it's a crapshoot, just remember 120 hours, past that the accuracy drops precipitously. Right now, at 5 days and the 500mb level, the GFS and Euro skill are running very close to each other. The euro is a smoother line, less ups and downs, and the GFS is kind of spastic, and yes, it will beat the euro from time to time.

Not sure if this is a public link or not. http://models.weatherbell.com/verf/ecmw ... h_f120.png If you can see it then great.

[Hurricaneman]

Even the NASA model is with the ECMWF and UKMET on a track close to SA without blowing it up to a CAT 5. Plus it moves the system slightly WSW also

Also has the cutoff farther nw near the Indiana/Illinois line making the weakness be west more towards the west of Florida