ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1121 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:02 am

12z GFS... 96 hours... Moving Just N Of W... Cat 1/2... Getting Stronger, 967 mb... Way S of Haiti...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1122 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:03 am

Still heading near due west at 96hrs.

At this point on the 96z, it was moving NW on its bend to the north/NNE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1123 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:04 am

The 12z GFS will probably make the Northward-Northwestward turn after hour 96 as the high moves east a bit, which should allow for more poleward movement. Edit: Definitely a more WNW-NW turn on hour 102 but the high moves Southwest as well. Storm might be strong enough to move more northerly anyways though.
Last edited by TheProfessor on Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1124 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:05 am

Image
12z GFS... 102 hours... Moving WNW... Cat 2... Getting Stronger, 959 mb...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1125 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:05 am

Due north turn at hr 108 a bit further west than the 06z turn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1126 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:05 am

stronger and farther west at 102 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1127 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:06 am

At 102 hours 500mb ridging a little stronger then 6z run. Storm got just a bit further west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1128 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:06 am

At 108 looks to start heading north. Possibly of more importance though is the low off to the ENE of Matthew. It appears weaker than the 06z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1129 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:07 am

I'm guessing this GFS run will have Jamaica in its sights
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1130 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:08 am

12z GFS... 108 hours... Moving NW or N Turn... Cat 2... Mb Up To 961 from 959...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1131 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:08 am

Starting north turn at 108 hrs. Might depart the Caibbean slightly west of 6z position.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1132 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:09 am

5 mb weaker AND Southwest of last night's 0Z position. So far looking like its tracking 280 at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1133 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:09 am

12Z, sticking to the same general story so far.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1134 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:10 am

12z GFS... 114 hours... Maybe Just E of N Slowly... Cat 2... 964 mb...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1135 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:11 am

12Z JMA 72 hour position is 2 degrees west of its 96 hour position from yesterday...so west trend with today's JMA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1136 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:12 am

12z GFS... 120 hours... Moving N Towards Haiti... Cat 2... Getting Stronger 956 Mb...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1137 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:14 am

Here's the 120 position with 8 run trend.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1138 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:14 am

12z GFS... 126 hours... Moving N Towards Haiti Peninsula... Cat 2/3... Getting Stronger... Just W of 06z Now...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1139 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:14 am

chaser1 wrote:5 mb weaker AND Southwest of last night's 0Z position. So far looking like its tracking 280 at this point.


yep, looks like it has made that turn right at 108 hours. Now, will this along with a slower forward motion still have the GFS maintain a due north track from here out? Well, at least it inched westward and now looking like the Windward passage. Still surprised that we're not seeing a greater west deviation from its prior runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1140 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:16 am

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