ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1181 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:42 am

In the nearer term it looks like the primary difference between the models involves whether the GFS is overdoing the influence that the cut-off northeast of the Virgin Islands will play toward eroding the W. Atlantic ridge, especially if one takes into account the rather low latitude and assumed postion of practically reaching 75W. Seems to me that the GFS is really overplaying the influence of that cut-off feature. No doubt that all the other globals see this feature as a much lesser influence to cause such an immediate right hand turn. That suddenly appearing northeast southwest trough that pops into the scene around Nova Scotia seems a bit suspect too (I wonder if Ninel Conde has anything to do with that :lol: ?)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1182 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:43 am

much to my surprise, the MU swings a bit west at the longer range
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1183 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:45 am

Well the 12z GFS is a touch west going through the Greater Antilles/Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas but then shifted a little further east thereafter before swinging closer to the NE U.S. at the end of the run.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1184 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:45 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1185 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:46 am

Looks like were in 2 camps again...Euro vs GFS...Lets see who(what model) looks like the genius in the end once again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1186 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am


Not a whole lot but yeah it no longer makes landfall in Eastern NC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1187 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:49 am

TheStormExpert wrote:

Not a whole lot but yeah it no longer makes landfall in Eastern NC.


It does make landfall, its a close run thing but there is a technical landfall from the CMC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1188 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:49 am

The biggest difference in the GFS and the Euro is the low is there in the Azores on the GFS while the low isnt there on the Euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1189 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:49 am

TheStormExpert wrote:

Not a whole lot but yeah it no longer makes landfall in Eastern NC.



yeah it does, at Cape Lookout
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1190 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:04 pm

KWT wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:So the 12z UKMET shifts East, could this be the start of more East shifts?

Likely So...they will all be east of Bermuda in a couple of days.


Even the GFS is not that far east...yet!

In all seriousness though, it looks like a tough call, the UKMO is a little east but we don't know yet what the upper synoptics look like. For example at 168hrs the weakness may close on that run and do what the ECM did.

I don't think anyone is denying a northerly motion WILL happen, but to what extent and is it enough to force it right out to sea is a real big question that is not going to be answered by just this suite of models.

Some are trending west, some are going more east...


Overall at least in the short to mid range the 12Z models have trended West so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1191 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:07 pm

So no more Florida threat?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1192 Postby TimeZone » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:07 pm

GFS is out to lunch in fantasy land. Has what appears to be a cat 3 Hurricane crashing into Nova Scotia. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1193 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:09 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:So no more Florida threat?


I do not think the threat is any different from what it was last night. The Canadian and GFS models shifted west in the short to mid term and the Euro has not ran yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1194 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:10 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like were in 2 camps again...Euro vs GFS...Lets see who(what model) looks like the genius in the end once again.
this division in model output just shows tha there are very subtle features in the setup that could cause rather large differences in the final solutions. This certainly isn't uncommon in the timeframe we're talking about here. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see either model trend towards the other as we get closer in time and the pattern is nailed down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1195 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:11 pm

no threat to anyone right now till something develops, once it develops then everyone on the gulf coast and east coast needs to pay close attention
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1196 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:11 pm

Does anybody have the 12z Navgem??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1197 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:12 pm

its still running on tidbits but that model is worse than the CMC lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1198 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:12 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Does anybody have the 12z Navgem??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk


It's just now running.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1199 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:15 pm

tolakram wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Does anybody have the 12z Navgem??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk


It's just now running.


shifts east in the Bahamas:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1200 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:15 pm

Its really quite interesting if you really take a close look at the EURO model verses the GFS. The difference in 120 hr. forecasts between the two is a result of the EURO moving slightly faster and slightly further west to a point near 12N and 77W at about 120 hours (from last night's 0Z). At the same time frame (108 hr.s from the 12Z run) the GFS has the center of the storm very very close at this point, and at around 14N and 75W. Whether the simply difference in track beyond that point has more to do with the 2 degree difference in which the EURO is further southwest, the influence of the cut-off low NE of the Virgin Islands, or a combination of the two, these really are nuances and not as if one model is seeing a huge trough while the other is seeing some mondo ridge. At this point though, if we were to see an altogether different result begin to play out, than we can then just throw all the models into the garbage lol. Otherwise, it looks like a broad general track is beginning to become a little bit more in view. Tricky part is that this track still poses the risk of a hurricane impacting any point between 70W and 85W, with a motion toward the north to Northwest. For now I"m sticking with my guns in thinking that 60mph tropical storm conditions will impact the Windwards and Leewards, and a strengthening hurricane to impact Jamaica and E. or Central Cuba.
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