ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Alyono]

path to the east MAY be getting closed

[robbielyn]

I hope for my boss's sake this misses the bahamas cuz he leaves friday to vacation there. Poor guy he deserves a vacation.

[PTrackerLA]

Big ridge building in NE at hour 180 with exit door closing, could be a mid-Atlantic threat this run

[OntarioEggplant]

What is that nonsense that the GFS spits out at 500 mb over the eastern Gulf? Completely bogus.

[ThetaE]

further west at 144 hours, but a HUGE escape path to the NE

It looked like it was going out to sea... But now I'm not so sure. It was heading NNE, but it seems to have turned back (closer) to north at 180. Big HP sweeping SE, closing off that path.

[OntarioEggplant]

The 500 mb Heights North and northeast of the system are much higher than 12Z

[SouthFLTropics]

This has mid Atlantic written all over it...Delmarva all the way.

[meriland23]

[xcool22]

So more west. Open start close

[ThetaE]

Turning more NW at 198, towards the OBX.

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS continues the ever so gradual westward trends from over the past few GFS runs.

[Blown Away]

Cat 4 920 mb heading NW ...

[ThetaE]

Yikes

[meriland23]

Hour 204 and it's making its way west, very dangerous. Obvious difference from last run

[OntarioEggplant]

I think it's clearing up a bit. This is a massive correction more towards, but not quite all the way to, the Euro solution

[Bocadude85]

The 18z GFS continues the ever so gradual westward trends from over the past few GFS runs.

The gap between the Euro and GFS is slowly closing. The timing is still a little different but the distance gap has definitely been closing with each new run.

[jason1912]

Yikes

Don't like seeing this near the most populated coastline in the U.S...

[USTropics]

cutoff low over the CATL is leaving it behind, blocking high right above (extending eastward), likely slow mover towards the coast. There was actually pretty good ensemble support from the 12z GFS for a NC/OBX hit:

[meriland23]

@ 216

[meriland23]

@ 228