ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[meriland23]

Okay. Regarding the 18Z GFS...I don't even know where to begin. Prior to it slamming into NYC at 933mb, it spends 3.5 days lumbering up the coast from the Bahamas at 915-925mb, basically 3 days of Cat 4/5 strength. The storm surge would be unimaginable, the destruction beyond catastrophic.

Will this happen? Not a chance.

But it would make a HELL of a great film.

I am curious as to what makes you so sure it wont happen? Like I would like to know why without a doubt you 'know' it wont.

Well, I may have overstated my case with "not a chance". Obviously, there is no one in the world who knows what will happen with 97L, myself included. Like many on this board, I have seen literally hundreds of modeled catastrophes over the years from 200+ hours out, and they just do not play out as modeled. But this particular one made me chuckle because it is perhaps THE VERY WORST case scenario I have ever personally seen in a model. In fact, it's so outrageous, that it looks like a Hollywood script for the worst disaster ever.

Hey, who knows - maybe this is the one. I suppose there will come a day that NYC will be hit directly by a Category 4 behemoth, that has been driving Category 5 whipped waves for 3 days ahead of it. I would just wait another 5-6 days yet before committing to this solution.

I don't know if it looks like the worst possible disaster in modern history, but doesn't it strike you as a little scary that this is the worst outcome you've ever seen a model produce, out of all the modeled scenarios you've said you ever seen?

[CrazyC83]

We're all in play. From San Jose (Costa Rica) to St. John's (Newfoundland).

[SouthFloridawx]

What's the low near the Carolina's?

GFS ensembles continue to trend toward the ECMWF with even more turning WNW into Florida in the Bahamas:

[gatorcane]

Animation of the 18Z GFS ensembles from hours 126 to 252, not a trend we want to see here in Florida given what the ECMWF and ensembles are showing.

[ConvergenceZone]

While I agree with others that this GFS is a one and done model run never to be seen again, it is scary to see the runs inching closer to Florida and the East Coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW the HWRF is just a 1/2 degree farther north at 96 hours.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Animation of the 18Z GFS ensembles from hours 126 to 252, not a trend we want to see here in Florida given what the ECMWF and ensembles are showing.

Interesting that the ensemble models hitting Floridas east coast do so in the same time frame, 240 hours, as the 12z Euro.

[sma10]

I don't know if it looks like the worst possible disaster in modern history, but doesn't it strike you as a little scary that this is the worst outcome you've ever seen a model produce, out of all the modeled scenarios you've said you ever seen?

Oh, no - make no mistake: this would be the worst disaster in modern history (certainly from a monetary perspective). You couldn't put enough zeroes in the cost. But it's too early to worry.

I live near Miami. Today's Euro put Matthew as a 933mb storm right off the SFl coast. Not worried.

Yet.

[meriland23]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

[p1nheadlarry]

Animation of the 18Z GFS ensembles from hours 126 to 252, not a trend we want to see here in Florida given what the ECMWF and ensembles are showing.

I'm in favor of a blend of the two models, but I can see this thing going more west. Will have to wait and see where it goes and how much it strengthens I suppose.

[CrazyC83]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

If timed as such, it is very reasonable. However, timing will be important at several steps along the way. Also the strength of the initial low will be key (otherwise it gets bogged down in Central America like, say, Ida 2009).

It seems 65°W and 85°W are the goalposts right now.

[La Sirena]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

I think it is at this time....we're still too far out. The models just don't give us an accurate forecast this far out. If it were 5 days out from that scenario I would worry.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

I see every run as a possibility. It's just that as you go further out in the model time frame the possibilities expand exponentially making each scenario a longer shot of verifying.

[meriland23]

Well, I tell ya, I will be here to post updated pictures of the 00z run cause I am intensely curious how the trend will course

[CrazyC83]

I do think that if it is to go out to sea, it has to do so by October 5 or so, before the ridge rebuilds and then the trough captures it on October 7 or so.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF landfall on Tiburon Peninsula, 2nd run in a row...this time at 114 hours. On a NNW heading.

[cjrciadt]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

I hope so too, but I dont want to imagine what Staten Island would endure... If this occurred

[p1nheadlarry]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

If timed as such, it is very reasonable. However, timing will be important at several steps along the way. Also the strength of the initial low will be key (otherwise it gets bogged down in Central America like, say, Ida 2009).

It seems 65°W and 85°W are the goalposts right now.

Pretty big net. Net's too big in soccer anyway.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFDL with a CAT 5 SW of Jamaica (Jamaica is upper-right side of screen) turning NW/N. Looks like a buzzsaw

[CrazyC83]

That's at 850mb but would still be a borderline Cat 4/5 probably (130-140 kt).