sma10 wrote:meriland23 wrote:sma10 wrote:Okay. Regarding the 18Z GFS...I don't even know where to begin. Prior to it slamming into NYC at 933mb, it spends 3.5 days lumbering up the coast from the Bahamas at 915-925mb, basically 3 days of Cat 4/5 strength. The storm surge would be unimaginable, the destruction beyond catastrophic.
Will this happen? Not a chance.
But it would make a HELL of a great film.
I am curious as to what makes you so sure it wont happen? Like I would like to know why without a doubt you 'know' it wont.
Well, I may have overstated my case with "not a chance". Obviously, there is no one in the world who knows what will happen with 97L, myself included. Like many on this board, I have seen literally hundreds of modeled catastrophes over the years from 200+ hours out, and they just do not play out as modeled. But this particular one made me chuckle because it is perhaps THE VERY WORST case scenario I have ever personally seen in a model. In fact, it's so outrageous, that it looks like a Hollywood script for the worst disaster ever.
Hey, who knows - maybe this is the one. I suppose there will come a day that NYC will be hit directly by a Category 4 behemoth, that has been driving Category 5 whipped waves for 3 days ahead of it. I would just wait another 5-6 days yet before committing to this solution.
I don't know if it looks like the worst possible disaster in modern history, but doesn't it strike you as a little scary that this is the worst outcome you've ever seen a model produce, out of all the modeled scenarios you've said you ever seen?