ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Some of the models are showing a hit on New York now, so does that mean Florida has dodged another bullet?

It's still way too early to know that.

[Florida1118]

Some of the models are showing a hit on New York now, so does that mean Florida has dodged another bullet?

With all due respect, you've been on this board longer than virtually anyone, over 13 years. The answer has been and will probably be the same for the next 13years to come; outside of 5 days, no one really knows. It's going to keep changing, especially being 10+ days out.

[JtSmarts]

Some of the models are showing a hit on New York now, so does that mean Florida has dodged another bullet?

It's still way too early to know that.

I agree, from the models we are at the absolute earliest , 7.5-8 days from US impact, so a lot can and will change. (Remember Hermine).

[CourierPR]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 The latest NHC TWO is very significant in that the 5-day cone no longer bends south and still does not bend North....The cone also ends at about 76.5W. The magic number for a US impact could be about 78W; So this is definitely developing into a concerning situation. A terrible event could unfold if this thing makes it to the NW Caribbean with good upper level support.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong but that is a cone depicting the area of possible development, not a track cone for an already developed storm.

[Medtronic15]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 12.7N 54.0W T2.5/2.5 97L
27/1745 UTC 12.4N 53.1W T2.0/2.0 97L
27/1145 UTC 12.4N 52.0W T1.5/1.5 97L

[sunnyday]

I'm so sorry I asked the question. Being on the board for a long time, I guess I should have known better. I should keep my questions to myself.

[tolakram]

Some of the models are showing a hit on New York now, so does that mean Florida has dodged another bullet?

Good grief no. That was the very end of a GFS model run and that far out is never reliable. Models are most reliable within 5 days, and right now 5 days doesn't get this past Florida. I personally believe we won't know until this weekend what the chance of a Florida hit are.

[stormreader]

Making final approach to Islands, into Carribean tomorrow.

Could be really wrong, but is there any chance that when this system really gets going (say becomes a hurricane) we find that it's a physically smallish system? Perhaps models have already addressed this?? Just wondering that as the system slows and intensifies, it may lose some of that large outer cocoon that seems to be protecting the smallish inner core which seems to be developing now. May be wrong, just a thought.

[caribsue]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 12.7N 54.0W T2.5/2.5 97L
27/1745 UTC 12.4N 53.1W T2.0/2.0 97L
27/1145 UTC 12.4N 52.0W T1.5/1.5 97L

Sorry for the silly question... but does this mean that the system has been or will be upgraded

[floridasun78]

look low may form after plane left looking more as td or ts only thing don't know if we have llc with 97l do any know closest islands getting west wind?

[Hammy]

Stared at the satellite a few minutes (using my mouse as reference to avoid relative motion to high clouds) and this is roughly what I've analyzed the flow of the low clouds as. Center, if one exists, is likely somewhere in that circle, and the blue arrow could be low or mid-level clouds, it's a bit unclear. This may be starting to close off some sort of broad center, but it still seems badly tilted, possibly outrunning the MLC due to forward motion and causing continuing self-induced shear.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The 5 day cone may not show the dip to the SW, but remember that the width of the cone is the track could be on the left right or center. So it's not to say it could not take the SW jog.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092800, , BEST, 0, 131N, 553W, 30, 1008

[abajan]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 12.7N 54.0W T2.5/2.5 97L
27/1745 UTC 12.4N 53.1W T2.0/2.0 97L
27/1145 UTC 12.4N 52.0W T1.5/1.5 97L

Sorry for the silly question... but does this mean that the system has been or will be upgraded

If those T-Numbers are correct, for all intents and purposes, it's already a tropical storm. It's just that we don't know if the low level circulation has now closed off. So, strictly speaking, it can't be classified as a tropical storm until that can be confirmed.

P.S. It's not a silly question!

[TheStormExpert]

I'm guessing no upgrade @11pm according to the 00z Best Track.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: I'm guessing no upgrade @11pm according to the 00z Best Track.

Unlikely to get an upgrade without either ASCAT or recon at this point.

[hurricaneCW]

Models don't ramp this up until Thursday/Friday so I wouldn't be surprised if it took a couple more days before we got a named system.

Looks to ramp up quickly though beyond 3 days. My thoughts are we see a rapidly strengthening hurricane by the weekend.

[toad strangler]

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=17&lon=-54&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow

Has to be depression. Even as my eyes scream TS.

[CrazyC83]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 12.7N 54.0W T2.5/2.5 97L
27/1745 UTC 12.4N 53.1W T2.0/2.0 97L
27/1145 UTC 12.4N 52.0W T1.5/1.5 97L

Sorry for the silly question... but does this mean that the system has been or will be upgraded

If there is an LLC and based on Recon and buoy data we would probably jump to Tropical Storm Matthew immediately.

[floridasun78]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 12.7N 54.0W T2.5/2.5 97L
27/1745 UTC 12.4N 53.1W T2.0/2.0 97L
27/1145 UTC 12.4N 52.0W T1.5/1.5 97L

Sorry for the silly question... but does this mean that the system has been or will be upgraded

If those T-Numbers are correct, for all intents and purposes, it's already a tropical storm. It's just that we don't know if the low level circulation has now closed off. So, strictly speaking, it can't be classified as a tropical storm until that can be confirmed.

P.S. It's not a silly question!

i bet you ready for ts weather in case it one their saying you likely see ts wind even not ts