ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AtlanticWind]

At this point I think any where from Mississippi coast to new England are in the range of possibilities

[GeneratorPower]

At this point I think any where from Mississippi coast to new England are in the range of possibilities

Honestly, given how far out it is, even western GOM is possible. Less likely, though.

[Ken711]

I'm still thinking east of Florida, to possibly include the east coast of Florida. 12Z EC ensembles had a bit of a shift eastward.

Skirting up the Florida east coast or making landfall?

[hurricanedude]

WXMAN57...if its an east coast FL threat...what implicatons would this have on the rest of the EC....just offshore or coast hugger?

[TheStormExpert]

Sounds like wxman57 is implying a Hurricane David(1979) type track with possibly the closest approach to Florida being along the Palm Beach County coastline due to that being the eastern-most point of FL, just my guess.

[floridasun78]

WXMAN57...if its an east coast FL threat...what implicatons would this have on the rest of the EC....just offshore or coast hugger?

my weatherman say by sunday we know se fl coast if need get ready for hurr if form into hurr i can say bahamas people will need get ready their likely see hurr hope not strong as Joaquin that got them last year

[stormreader]

That GFDL run is interesting, when was the last time that strong a storm went right across the Caribbean? Gilbert ran from Antilles to Central America in early September like that, and I remember there was one other year (which one?) when several majors stayed south, but nothing since then.

Dean and Felix in 2007 did just those. But such a track is unlikely into October.

The above image is of Hurricane Lili track in 2002. Originally forecast to go N east of Fl (sound familiar) it maintained a consistent WNW across Carribean reaching Cat 4 strength in the GOM before weakening and making landfall all the way in SW La on Oct 3rd!

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Guidance.





18z GEFS Ensembles.

[stormreader]

Guess my track of Lily wouldn't post, but it answers your question. Formed way east of Carribean then consistent WNW across length of Carribean and into GOM. Last days of Sept and first days of Oct.

[CrazyC83]

That GFDL run is interesting, when was the last time that strong a storm went right across the Caribbean? Gilbert ran from Antilles to Central America in early September like that, and I remember there was one other year (which one?) when several majors stayed south, but nothing since then.

Dean and Felix in 2007 did just those. But such a track is unlikely into October.

The above image is of Hurricane Lily track in 2002. Originally forecast to go N east of Fl (sound familiar) it maintained a consistent WNW across Carribean reaching Cat 4 strength in the GOM before weakening and making landfall all the way in SW La on Oct 3rd!

Lili was much weaker in the low latitudes though (even a wave for a long time) and didn't really get its act together until it approached Cuba. This is likely to be much stronger sooner so the deep-layer flow will be driving it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

:uarrow: Sounds like wxman57 is implying a Hurricane David(1979) type track with possibly the closest approach to Florida being along the Palm Beach County coastline due to that being the eastern-most point of FL, just my guess.

Except missing Hispaniola...if David had not run into Hispaniola it would have been much different.

[Steve]

I'm still thinking east of Florida, to possibly include the east coast of Florida. 12Z EC ensembles had a bit of a shift eastward.

I think it's the safe bet considering how far east the system still is. I liked Rayno's fork in the road explanation (which is roughly the difference between the GFS and Euro). I still don't buy a +/- due north move through the Atlantic. GFS ensembles were closer to the 70W line before running due North later a few degrees farther west. It seems odd without a stalled front still on the land side of the U.S. East Coast that there would be a due north moving system in October. As I've said, I don't believe this is typical October (more like early September in many other years).

I think after some of the Islands and island nations, Florida is the most likely point of impact. A fairly narrow spread of LA/MS border to OBX or roughly 88.5/75.5 seems to me where the early morning line would place likely US impacts.

[floridasun78]

what i see models runs want take north by Haiti and Hispaniola and north trough Bahamas into Carolina by outer bank but still too close fl not rule it out

[Recurve]

That GFDL run is interesting, when was the last time that strong a storm went right across the Caribbean? Gilbert ran from Antilles to Central America in early September like that, and I remember there was one other year (which one?) when several majors stayed south, but nothing since then.

Dean and Felix in 2007 did just those. But such a track is unlikely into October.

That's just the year I was thinking of. Thanks!

[weatherwindow]

Just, really digging that narrow space between Cuba and Haiti eh?

By the way welcome back and that little space between Haiti and Cuba is the Windward Passage.... amazing how popular that passage is for recurving storms...Rich

[ronyan]

Mitch was a monster in 1998 into Honduras as a cat 5.

What was the hurricane that ran over the isle of youth at 150 mph?

Also don't forget Wilma was extremely intense in the Caribbean late season.

[Recurve]

Mitch was a monster in 1998 into Honduras as a cat 5.

What was the hurricane that ran over the isle of youth at 150 mph?

Also don't forget Wilma was extremely intense in the Caribbean late season.

Of course Charley was in the vicinity of this one's track, did that big parabolic track across the Caribbean, over Cuba and into Florida. Category 3 at landfall in Cuba. But that was August.

[floridasun78]

Mitch was a monster in 1998 into Honduras as a cat 5.

What was the hurricane that ran over the isle of youth at 150 mph?

Also don't forget Wilma was extremely intense in the Caribbean late season.

it look was Hurricane Gustav it pass cuba as cat 4 isle of youth was damage very badly

[RickM]

Is it just me or is this further north?

BTW wife and I are leaving for Cayman at 5am this morning. Supposed to be a 7 day trip. Hoping we can get a good 3 days before leaving.

[Steve]

Is it just me or is this further north?

BTW wife and I are leaving for Cayman at 5am this morning. Supposed to be a 7 day trip. Hoping we can get a good 3 days before leaving.

Do it. Do it. Do it. Do it. Worse comes to to worst, they'll have shelters there and you'll probably be in a big concrete hotel. Just ask for floor 2 or 3 to be safe Oh, and even a day without power on an island is probably preferable.