ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1601 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:14 pm

Easy to see a difference at hour 126. 00z has it just missing Haiti and about 50 miles west of 18z. Same latitude. Slightly stronger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1602 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:15 pm

Ok thanks guys. Here is more. Now hits Cuba

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1603 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:15 pm

GFS makes another small step W overall through 126. Looks to pass over extreme E Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1604 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:16 pm

GFS 500 mb trend over the past 48 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1605 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:17 pm

NW movement at 132
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1606 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:17 pm

144hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1607 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:18 pm

Can you tell the heading WNW NW ?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1608 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:19 pm

Due N again 138 and 144
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1609 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:20 pm

Davey Jones Magic Trap Door appears to be filling in at hour 156.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1610 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:21 pm

Cant get the picture but the HWRF at 60hrs has this at almost 15N and about 69.7W at 957MB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1611 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:21 pm

Wow decent shift west on that run, if the Euro does not slide east even thought it's long range I would say a lot of people will be in trouble down the line.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1612 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:22 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Can you tell the heading WNW NW ?


Neither. Overall motion is generally north from H132 to H168 as it emerges off the north coast of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1613 Postby jason1912 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:23 pm

CMC is east
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1614 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:23 pm

Switching to 850 vort. Still a bit SW compared to before

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1615 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:24 pm

Thanks AJC3
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1616 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:26 pm

massive east shift for the UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.7N 59.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2016 12 13.7N 59.2W 1009 35
0000UTC 29.09.2016 24 13.8N 62.4W 1005 40
1200UTC 29.09.2016 36 14.0N 65.4W 999 50
0000UTC 30.09.2016 48 14.0N 68.0W 990 62
1200UTC 30.09.2016 60 13.5N 69.8W 985 66
0000UTC 01.10.2016 72 13.0N 71.0W 981 65
1200UTC 01.10.2016 84 13.0N 71.5W 982 65
0000UTC 02.10.2016 96 13.5N 72.2W 983 61
1200UTC 02.10.2016 108 14.4N 72.8W 980 59
0000UTC 03.10.2016 120 15.8N 72.9W 974 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 132 17.8N 72.6W 974 67
0000UTC 04.10.2016 144 19.9N 72.4W 991 46
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1617 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:26 pm

jason1912 wrote:CMC is east


Aaaaaand the model disagreement continues lol.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1618 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:27 pm

Not an official forecast, but hour 174 is kind of scary... due south of the outer banks around 26.5/27 N :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1619 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:30 pm

Alyono wrote:massive east shift for the UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.7N 59.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2016 12 13.7N 59.2W 1009 35
0000UTC 29.09.2016 24 13.8N 62.4W 1005 40
1200UTC 29.09.2016 36 14.0N 65.4W 999 50
0000UTC 30.09.2016 48 14.0N 68.0W 990 62
1200UTC 30.09.2016 60 13.5N 69.8W 985 66
0000UTC 01.10.2016 72 13.0N 71.0W 981 65
1200UTC 01.10.2016 84 13.0N 71.5W 982 65
0000UTC 02.10.2016 96 13.5N 72.2W 983 61
1200UTC 02.10.2016 108 14.4N 72.8W 980 59
0000UTC 03.10.2016 120 15.8N 72.9W 974 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 132 17.8N 72.6W 974 67
0000UTC 04.10.2016 144 19.9N 72.4W 991 46



Oh thats just great!! Just when it looked like the Gfs was coming to its senses by shifting west...this thing and the Canadian shift East??? What is going on here for real lol!


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1620 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:31 pm

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