ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Bocadude85]

0z HWRF shifts southwest with a landfall in eastern Cuba now while missing Haiti to the west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092800&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=0

[USTropics]

The CMC operational is way too fast with this imo, most likely due to the questionable development of system that lifts north from the ITCZ (the GFS washes this vorticity out well east of the Lesser Antilles). Still brings some pretty nasty conditions to the OBX.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

[wxmann_91]

0Z Euro a bit stronger thru hr 72. Still has a significant SW dip that takes 97L very close to the Guajira Peninsula in northern Colombia in about 72 hr.

[AJC3]

Almost time for the Euro...any guesses? I think a tad east this time.

"East of Bermuda"

[SeGaBob]

Almost time for the Euro...any guesses? I think a tad east this time.

"East of Bermuda"

Yeah I won't be able to live it down after this. I mean it COULD still happen I suppose.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

seems like if the euro is trending in the Caribbean Sea it has a better chance of entering the GOM and then possibly making the curve.

[LarryWx]

Almost time for the Euro...any guesses? I think a tad east this time.

Would you do me a favor and pick my lottery numbers?

Seriously, I'm leaning a tad east this run looking at hour 96. Let's see.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

seems like at 72hrs the gfs, euro and hwrf are trending in the same general area of between 16 and 18N

[stormhunter7]

Looks to be tracking nw at 120hrs.. EURO.. may miss DR/Haiti all together and nail eastern Cuba. Forgot to add... Jamaica first!

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

120 still in open waters, no sign of any hard recurve

[chaser1]

I'm thinking a tad further west than prior run. It just occured to me that given the significant deepening that will be starting to occur, along with the fact that it would appear to be a fairly large system, that the storm itself might well be a cause of its own further westward motion by pumping up the high pressure ridge to its north and northeast. I'm pretty sure that there have been numerous prior cases in which this occurred as well.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I'm thinking a tad further west than prior run. It just occured to me that given the significant deepening that will be starting to occur, along with the fact that it would appear to be a fairly large system, that the storm itself might well be a cause of its own further westward motion by pumping up the high pressure ridge to its north and northeast. I'm pretty sure that there have been numerous prior cases in which this occurred as well.

definitely plausible since the models right now keep this below 20N but having it around 75 or 80W between 72 and 120 hrs from now. even nhc cone isnt yet showing any sign of a slight or hard recurve

[SeGaBob]

Jamaica again at 144

[TheStormExpert]

The door is WIDE OPEN for it to swing NE out to sea @144hrs.

[wxmann_91]

Third consecutive Euro run where this has gone into Kingston from the south. The strongest one yet. Kingston would sustain major impacts if these runs verified.

[LarryWx]

I think we're about to see SeGaBob's tad east start appearing. Note the lower 500 mb heights to the north at hour 144 vs the last two runs. Also, the stronger storm would favor a tad east imo. The tad east may then grow to more than a tad east.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

The door is WIDE OPEN for it to swing NE out to sea @144hrs.

yeah the 240 will be the interesting one to see if they are going to continue trending toward GOM or curve out to sea

[stormhunter7]

After Jamica.. kicks NNE to Cuba.