ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxmann_91]

NW jog at H240. eek.

With troughing developing in the western U.S. Verbatim, this would look like a FL-Gulf scenario down the road. Usual disclaimers about fantasy-land and the bad practice of extrapolating end of model runs apply.

[chaser1]

"If" this scenario were to play out, i'll go out on a limb and guess that there'll be very few tree limbs to go out on in Ft. Lauderdale.

[stormhunter7]

926mb at 240 hrs on EURO over western Bahamas.. ridge building to the north....

[TheStormExpert]

Euro still persistent for the 3rd run in a row of threatening Florida, of course 10 days out.

[LarryWx]

I don't know Larry if I was right. Seems about the same but slower.

You were definitely right. It is east of the last two runs though FL not in the clear with that last minute thumb block.

[USTropics]

Entire 00z ECMWF operational loop:

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

"If" this scenario were to play out, i'll go out on a limb and guess that there'll be very few tree limbs to go out on in Ft. Lauderdale.

lmao!! nope! just a bare thin trunk that would resemble a limb

[TheStormExpert]

One of the MANY things that is not certain this far out with the 500mb pattern is will that Cut-Off Low redevelop off the NE U.S. trying to create a weakness NE OTS? The 12z run did not have this occur which explained how it got further west faster closer to the East Coast of FL, not to mention the 00z GFS doesn't show the Cut-Off Low redeveloping and instead has a ridge overhead steering it into the NC Coast.

Well, back to to bed!

Going to be yet another long day ahead of model watching.

[AutoPenalti]

Entire 00z ECMWF operational loop:

Umm, WHAT.

[USTropics]

00z GFS operational run, surface pressure at 24 hour intervals:

[meriland23]

Here is a good question, in terms of history..how often is it that GFS/EURO assume a Cat.4/5 intensity storm over a week and some change out? I am curious cause I am wondering if the persistence in strength this far out is odd or worrisome or if it is common/typical this far out when it comes to minor storms.

[KWT]

GFs and ECM in synoptic agreement, just the GFS is much faster and so it bends back NW much further north, but both models now agree on a broad idea.

[stormlover2013]

Guys still plenty time to watch and timing, this will keep changing and it could go back west again if that ridge builds 2 days before and etc....models aren't good with intensify so we will just have to let it play out all I know if this far out we will see models flip prob 2 more times....we will know by Saturday or prob Sunday what it might do but heck could be Monday

[jlauderdal]

Pencil ridge rebuilding to it NW and N as it slows to a NW crawl. Some more long days and nights of model analysis ahead....

that ridge has been there in the model for a few days now..yikes

[jlauderdal]

"If" this scenario were to play out, i'll go out on a limb and guess that there'll be very few tree limbs to go out on in Ft. Lauderdale.

we have hurricane proof trees in FLL so no worries here..besides I have a secret weapon to deploy if we get inside 5 days of a potential strike...its just another model storm for Florida at this point...been down this road many times since WIlma

[CourierPR]

"If" this scenario were to play out, i'll go out on a limb and guess that there'll be very few tree limbs to go out on in Ft. Lauderdale.

we have hurricane proof trees in FLL so no worries here..besides I have a secret weapon to deploy if we get inside 5 days of a potential strike...its just another model storm for Florida at this point...been down this road many times since WIlma

Fire up that generator, jlauderdale.

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles with tracks:

[USTropics]

CMC ensemble mean pressure, FL/EC threat:

120 hours:


184 hours:

[jlauderdal]

"If" this scenario were to play out, i'll go out on a limb and guess that there'll be very few tree limbs to go out on in Ft. Lauderdale.

we have hurricane proof trees in FLL so no worries here..besides I have a secret weapon to deploy if we get inside 5 days of a potential strike...its just another model storm for Florida at this point...been down this road many times since WIlma

Fire up that generator, jlauderdale.

fired up during all that hermine nonsense modeling...no storm..will see if we need it again..not until this weekend

picture of the unit below:

[USTropics]

looks like the mean of the ECMWF ensembles remain with a slower recurve, and then a widspread of ideas after that:

192 hours


240 hours