ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Wave axis is showing up on Barbados radar, around 58W, well west of the convection, and there is absolutely no evidence of a closed circulation. This may not form for another 2-3 days, which is about what the Euro showed earlier today.

I think It won't be THAT long.

6 hours or less lol..

[tolakram]

Looks great in IR, but these things can fool ya.

[Hammy]

Whatever low-level vortex may exist is nearing Barbados at the moment, still well removed from the convection. Wave axis appears to be ~59W, with no indications of westerly, or even SW flow.

[USTropics]

Yea looks like the low level circulation has run out in front of it, SE of Barbados near 58.5W 12.4N

[USTropics]

Earth Nullschool surface winds:


500mb:


850mb on CIMSS:


500mb:

[otowntiger]

Earth Nullschool surface winds:


500mb:


850mb on CIMSS:


500mb:

. Very impressive imagery there- and very telling. Tells me this thing has a long ways to go and so far under performing, from what I can see and understand. Still just a wave- a sharply amplified wave but still a wave. No closed circulation. Also to my untrained eye it appears to have shrunk. I was thinking earlier this was going to have a pretty far reaching circulation but in that last image seems pretty small.

[p1nheadlarry]

looks like there may be 20 kts of shear over this, mainly due to very fast low level easterlies.

This was not supposed to happen

I thought the quicker trades in the region would stunt major growth until it hit the middle Caribbean. Strengthening in the eastern part of the sea would be slow to occur.

[abajan]

It's currently almost overcast with just a few patches of blue sky, and judging from how calm it is, with no discernible movement of the clouds, I'm guessing we're now somewhere within 97L's center of circulation.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/781071463264681985

[NDG]

Looking at radar loop from Barbados 97L looks to have a more defined circulation, might be enough if confirmed by the recon this morning to upgrade it into at least a TD.
At 10z Barbados reported light NW winds.

[jlauderdal]

In case you missed it

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Looks to me like this system gets to at least 75W probably farther...80w is the magic number for SE florida

[cycloneye]

TS force winds found by plane so is only a matter to close the circulation.

[GCANE]

Strong convection firing right over the CoC.
Ramp up has begun.
Very likley now that the recurve will happen around Haiti.

[NDG]

TS force winds found by plane so is only a matter to close the circulation.

Yeap, recon finding plenty of TS force winds just north of Barbados.

[tolakram]

visible loops

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-60&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=17&lon=-60&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/0545 UTC 13.4N 55.3W T2.5/2.5 97L

[NDG]

Looking at recon, COC appears to be right over Barbados.

[SoupBone]

Any idea what the conditions will be like for the ABC islands?

[caribsue]

Very quiet here in the south west of Barbados with overcast conditions

[jlauderdal]

TS force winds found by plane so is only a matter to close the circulation.

Yeap, recon finding plenty of TS force winds just north of Barbados.

Clearly getting hit with ssw shear..closing it not so easy...ts winds just one part of naming it