ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Center (if there is one) might be near or over Barbados.

[Alyono]

The ts winds were found during descent. Likely not valid

[cycloneye]

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the strong tropical wave located near Barbados is producing
winds of 40 to 45 mph. Regardless of whether or not the system
becomes a tropical storm before it moves through the Lesser
Antilles, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains will spread
across Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia today.
Satellite and surface observations suggest that the circulation
associated with the system has become better defined, and the
reconnaissance aircraft is beginning its mission to determine if a
tropical storm has formed. The system is moving westward to
west-northwestward at around 15 mph, and is expected to pass over
the Lesser Antilles later today, and move over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands should
consult products issued by your national meteorological service,
including possible tropical storm warnings or watches. Interests
in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South
America should also monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 19N
southward. A 1007 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
13N, about 150 nm to the east of Barbados. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 12N to 15N
between 55W and 59W, and from 11N to 13N between 60W and 63W.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 50W and 63W.
The precipitation pattern continues to show signs of
organization. It is likely that a tropical depression or a
tropical storm may form later today if this weather system
continues to become more organized. The system is moving
westward to west-northwestward 15 to 20 mph, and it is expected
to pass over the Windward Islands later today, and then move
across the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system again later this morning.
Please monitor the progress of this weather system if you have
any interests that are in the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands, Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast
of South America. Please consult any bulletins and/or warnings
that are issued by your country's weather bureau, which may
include tropical storm warnings or watches. The chance of
formation during the next 48 hours is high. Heavy rains and
tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to spread
over the Windward Islands and sections of the southern Leeward
Islands, beginning this morning, and continuing through tonight
and early Thursday. Gale-force wind conditions are present,
within 150 NM of the center in the N quadrant. Expect the sea
heights to range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please refer to the
HIGH SEAS FORECAST, MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...

[NDG]

Still looks like the COC is still broad no LLC found yet.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/781101244354064384

[NDG]

The ts winds were found during descent. Likely not valid

It also found TS force winds at cruising altitude.

[tolakram]

So far nothing. Wind shift apparent and maybe 1 reading of west winds, at like 1 kt.

[abajan]

[northjaxpro]

Looks as if Recon will in all likelihood be able to close off the surface circulation today. Matthew will be born today.
I would be rather surprised if Recon was not able to close off this system today.

Well, settle in folks because we are in for one hell of a period of model watching and long nights watching the developments of this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone.

[tolakram]

I was looking at older GFS runs and sure enough it did not really get this going until right over or past the islands save for a few runs. In 48 hours if this isn't a decent tropical storm them we've all been played by the models again.

[RL3AO]

This may still be about 24 hours away from being able to close off the low. We will see.

[Alyono]

This is looking very similar to Fay from 2008 where we had a well formed TC from 700mb and above. The wave was 300 miles west of that feature Development did not occur until that mid level TC finally dissipated.

This may explain why we have had the convection insisting on firing 200-300 miles away from the wave axis

[SoupBone]

ABC islands? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

[RL3AO]

ABC islands? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

Are you asking what they are (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) or what impacts may be for them?

[northjaxpro]

This may still be about 24 hours away from being able to close off the low. We will see.

Well, I know it is the long held myth of the late great John Hope concerning the Eastern Caribbean being a graveyard for many tropical cyclones. The inflow from South America has really played havoc on numerous cyclones that have traversed this region through the years. So, it is rather plausible that 97L may struggle to get going while down there.

[Hurricaneman]

Why is dvorak following the MLC instead of the LLC which it should be doing, heck even the Bset Track is following the MLC and what implications downstream would that have, and is it me or is the LLC slowing down letting the MLC catch up

[RL3AO]

This may still be about 24 hours away from being able to close off the low. We will see.

Well, I know it is the long held myth of the late great John Hope concerning the Eastern Caribbean being a graveyard for many tropical cyclones. The inflow grom South America has really played havoc on numerous cyclones that have traversed this region through the years. So, it is rather plausible that 97L may struggle to get going ehile down there.

I think much of the eastern Caribbean unfavorability comes from the usually divergent low-level trade wind flow in July-August. I don't see that as being an issue with this system.

[Alyono]

Why is dvorak following the MLC instead of the LLC which it should be doing and is it me or is the LLC slowing down letting the MLC catch up

major error from the satellite analyst

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 97L...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1145 UTC 13.6N 58.3W T3.0/3.0 97L