ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tpr1967]

Still looks very tilted with height. The MLC is displaced NNE of what seems to be a suspect LLC but elongated still trying to form. Don't know if NHC can pull the trigger on this quite yet.

I agree.

[GlennOBX]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB

Can you "decode" this for the uninitiated? I get the lat and long, but other than that...

[Fego]

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB

Can you "decode" this for the uninitiated? I get the lat and long, but other than that...

The 40 is winds at kts 1008 is the pressure and DB is disturbance.

[terstorm1012]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB

Can you "decode" this for the uninitiated? I get the lat and long, but other than that...

it's got tropical storm force winds (40 knts) but isn't organized enough to be named. 1008 is the pressure in millibars. I expect this will get a name later today, if not tomorrow. It's got to slow down and organize first.

at least I think I have that right!

[CourierPR]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB

Can you "decode" this for the uninitiated? I get the lat and long, but other than that...

Is that 40 kt winds and 1008 millibars pressure?

[GlennOBX]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB

Can you "decode" this for the uninitiated? I get the lat and long, but other than that...

The 40 is winds at kts 1008 is the pressure and DB is disturbance.

So, this is current position? The "best track" always makes me think it's a prediction of where it's headed. Sorry for the confusion.

[abajan]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 598W, 40, 1008, DB

Location seems about right, because whereas the low clouds weren't moving at all earlier this morning, they're now clearly drifting from the south.

[Blown Away]

[alienstorm]

Recon not finding any LLC broad and diffuse circulation. Strong winds but pressure still high and no LLC

[GCANE]

OK, I take back my earlier comment that it is ramping up.
Convection is far removed from the wave axis.
I am going back with the idea that this slips underneath the forecasted Cut-Off Low's Trough.
I'll post something more technical on that idea later today on why I think it will likely miss the recurve and likely RI once it gets past the trough.

[Hamanard]

Recon not finding any LLC broad and diffuse circulation. Strong winds but pressure still high and no LLC

I believe the higher pressure stems from a relative higher pressure environment around the system. Hence why winds don't exactly correlate to the systems relative higher pressure.

I am no met.

[cycloneye]

Yikes Peak 10-second Wind: 54 kt at 101°

[txwatcher91]

OK, I take back my earlier comment that it is ramping up.
Convection is far removed from the wave axis.
I am going back with the idea that this slips underneath the forecasted Cut-Off Low's Trough.
I'll post something more technical on that idea later today on why I think it will likely miss the recurve and likely RI once it gets past the trough.

Most models don't really develop this into a TS until early Thursday morning. Once this gets going it will likely organize fairly quickly if shear is favorable as models indicate.

[centuryv58]

OK, I take back my earlier comment that it is ramping up.
Convection is far removed from the wave axis.
I am going back with the idea that this slips underneath the forecasted Cut-Off Low's Trough.
I'll post something more technical on that idea later today on why I think it will likely miss the recurve and likely RI once it gets past the trough.

Hope your prediction does not pan out. No offense though.

[NDG]

Yikes Peak 10-second Wind: 54 kt at 101°

I'm 50/50 with an upgrade even though they have not found a well defined LLC, IMO.
In another words I wouldn't be surprised either way

[stormlover2013]

models have done a horrible job this year of over developing storms to early.........we shall see when this develops

[GCANE]

That high wind measurement was at 14.7N 60.0W, right underneath a strong cell.

[jlauderdal]

Yikes Peak 10-second Wind: 54 kt at 101°

I'm 50/50 with an upgrade even though they have not found a well defined LLC, IMO.
In another words I wouldn't be surprised either way

they arent going to upgrade it without a defined llc..winds could be 100 knots and without that closed llc it isnt happening..furthermore. they dont want to declare something not well defined only for it to fall apart in 6 hours at the next advisory...patience folks..we know generally what is going to happen the next 5 days

[cycloneye]

Evemn more strong winds found.Is good reading uncontaminated.

061 049 008 00