ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[OuterBanker]

00z GFS ensembles with tracks:

If one lived on the outer Banks I would make sure that my Xanax supply with as filled.

But in reality it's the 10 day GFS and has little or no chance of verification.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/781108164838260736

[AutoPenalti]

Lol, good morning to you all, just a couple of hours ago I saw a GFS with landfall in FL, now it's out to sea and into OBX?

[RL3AO]

Lol, good morning to you all, just a couple of hours ago I saw a GFS with landfall in FL, now it's out to sea and into OBX?

Well, it was a 9 day forecast. East Florida or Outer Banks is a fairly small change over 9 days.

[RL3AO]

BTW, I still don't think the GEFS has enough spread even though it was something that was supposed to change. I think EPS has a much better handle on the potential spread beyond 5 days.

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM is slowly creeping west, it has a Jamaica landfall now and creeping slowly west towards South Florida on the recurve:

[Hamanard]

Lol, good morning to you all, just a couple of hours ago I saw a GFS with landfall in FL, now it's out to sea and into OBX?

To my knowledge, the GFS has not showed a east Florida landfall. Previous 2 GFS runs have shown an NC landfall near the fantasy timeline and before that it was OTS. This of course is from the operational GFS runs.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Lol, good morning to you all, just a couple of hours ago I saw a GFS with landfall in FL, now it's out to sea and into OBX?

To my knowledge, the GFS has not showed a east Florida landfall. Previous 2 GFS runs have shown an NC landfall near the fantasy timeline and before that it was OTS. This of course is from the operational GFS runs.

Have feeling he was glancing at Ensembles.

[gatorcane]

FIM-9 shifting west from the 12Z run yesterday by a good amount:

[AutoPenalti]

Lol, good morning to you all, just a couple of hours ago I saw a GFS with landfall in FL, now it's out to sea and into OBX?

To my knowledge, the GFS has not showed a east Florida landfall. Previous 2 GFS runs have shown an NC landfall near the fantasy timeline and before that it was OTS. This of course is from the operational GFS runs.

Have feeling he was glancing at Ensembles.

Talking about the Euro from this morning.

[WeatherEmperor]

FIM-9 shifting west from the 12Z run yesterday by a good amount:

Wow that is very close to FL. Just 50 miles further west and it would bring serious conditions to FL. Way too close for comfort on this run.


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[MississippiWx]

To my knowledge, the GFS has not showed a east Florida landfall. Previous 2 GFS runs have shown an NC landfall near the fantasy timeline and before that it was OTS. This of course is from the operational GFS runs.

Have feeling he was glancing at Ensembles.

Talking about the Euro from this morning.

This morning's Euro has it moving WNW towards South Florida at 240...a 10 day forecast.
We are going to be dealing with this a while to come.

I think some of us are used to dealing with the landfall of a system in 5-7 days if it has entered the Caribbean, so we are jumping at what models are showing too quickly. However, 97L/Matthew could still be offshore the United States (somewhere near South Florida) in 10 days and not leave the Caribbean until a week from now. That is significant. A lot WILL change in the 500mb forecasts in the models during that time. Very complicated pattern, but what's new these days with a tropical cyclone near the United States?

[Ken711]

I think the models are closing in my NC/VA landfall prediction.

Where are you located Ken?

I live in Williamsburg, VA. I hope I'm wrong and this stays out to sea, but I have a feeling the NC/VA landfall is the ultimate destination for the future Matthew.

[MississippiWx]

Some of y'all should stop by the Recon Discussion topic. 97L/trade wind combo are producing 64kt flight level winds.

[Bocadude85]

12z Model Guidance:



06z GEFS Ensembles:



00z GEPS Ensembles:

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Wow the consensus models are on the extreme western part of Jamaica... thats the farthest west they have been in awhile isnt it?

[jlauderdal]

Some of y'all should stop by the Recon Discussion topic. 97L/trade wind combo are producing 64kt flight level winds.

yep but no defined closed center..if it was closed that would be a big deal

[MississippiWx]

Some of y'all should stop by the Recon Discussion topic. 97L/trade wind combo are producing 64kt flight level winds.

yep but no defined closed center..if it was closed that would be a big deal

Makes no difference...it still has the same effect on the islands, closed circulation or not.

[SunnyThoughts]

ok, that is far enough West. Is there no shear forecast at anytime to tear this system apart? At any rate, with the models all trending west, it seems everyone from the GOM to the NE coast of the US and all points in between need to stay vigilant. Those in the islands, take care.

[SouthFLTropics]

The islands of course are under the gun. Then Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas and then possible effects to the CONUS. Where it effects the CONUS is the big question. Florida is still very much in play simply from the angle of attack. Most current models keep it offshore. However, it only takes a small wobble left on that approach to bring effects to the coastline. The timing difference between the GFS and Euro is huge. Best case scenario for the CONUS is that this develops quickly and gets pulled north quickly. Unfortunately quick developing storms have not been the case this year and we have seen systems slide further west all season. The longer this takes to develop and the longer it stays in the Caribbean the more likely a hit to Florida comes into play. Even at this point I don't think the CONUS gets out of this without a hit. The question is whether it will be NC and points north or will it be sooner and into Florida. Angle of approach to Florida will be huge.

[ronjon]

NHC 5 day track forecast might be interesting at 11 am. let's see where they go with the models and in discussion.