ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#741 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:28 am

This is embedded within the SAL. What we're seeing may be the convection bringing down the winds from the SAL easterly jet, which is usually around the 700 mb level
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#742 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:31 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Yikes Peak 10-second Wind: 54 kt at 101°


I'm 50/50 with an upgrade even though they have not found a well defined LLC, IMO.
In another words I wouldn't be surprised either way :lol:



It has closed circulation, just not a well defined LLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#743 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:31 am

This is extremely strong for a disturbance, but in the tropics, speed can kill. It's just going too fast to get properly developed. It's just a matter of time though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#744 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:33 am

The 50-55 kt sustained winds could still be significant for the Lesser Antilles though, even if there is no LLC...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#745 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:33 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
GCANE wrote:OK, I take back my earlier comment that it is ramping up.
Convection is far removed from the wave axis.
I am going back with the idea that this slips underneath the forecasted Cut-Off Low's Trough.
I'll post something more technical on that idea later today on why I think it will likely miss the recurve and likely RI once it gets past the trough.


Most models don't really develop this into a TS until early Thursday morning. Once this gets going it will likely organize fairly quickly if shear is favorable as models indicate.



Yup, GFS does not show it really closed off till it gets to St Vincent or beyond ~( 13.5N 61.5W ) or thereabouts, so I just don't see that the intensity is affecting the model track solutions just yet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#746 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:33 am

I don't think it warrants an upgrade yet. The longer this takes to develop, obviously better for Haiti but not so good for Jamaica/Cuba/Bahamas/Florida and possibly East coast of US further downstream. Remember the GFS was calling for a strong TS to hurricane by now in its runs from several days ago with a sharp recurve into the Dominican Republic/Haiti. GFS intensity forecast is not verifying.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#747 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:34 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The 50-55 kt sustained winds could still be significant for the Lesser Antilles though, even if there is no LLC...


Bingo my friend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#748 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:35 am

One thing for certain, if this does not slow down and fails to develop into a TC and deepen the next couple days it just might not react and turn as abruptly when the weakness forms off the Coast of Florida. We saw this with Hermine, models wanted to turn it northward as a TC in the Bahamas but the lack of development kept it caught in the lower level flow. The trades in the central Carib. Sea are still moving a good clip.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#749 Postby centuryv58 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:35 am

gatorcane wrote:I don't think it warrants an upgrade yet. The longer this takes to develop, obviously better for Haiti but not so good for Jamaica/Cuba/Bahamas/Florida and possibly East coast of US further downstream. Remember the GFS was calling for a strong TS to hurricane by now in its runs from several days ago with a sharp recurve into the Dominican Republic/Haiti. GFS intensity forecast is not verifying.


This is my concern too. Westward ho seems to be the trend for the last few days with just a few wobbles off that track but definitely west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#750 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:39 am

AdamFirst wrote:This is extremely strong for a disturbance, but in the tropics, speed can kill. It's just going too fast to get properly developed. It's just a matter of time though.


Is this accurate? I have seen countless TC's over the years with forward speed of 15-20mph
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#751 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:41 am

Well the GFS and Euro don't forecast elongated and tilted circulations to that level detail, but 50+ kt winds seems pretty close to the models verify albeit the storm was depicted symmetrically. TS force winds at the surface and closed overall circ, dense increasing convection, heavy rains, high seas, all look like a TS to me despite the pressure ( which is relative), structure, and center not meeting the technical definition of the category.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#752 Postby cajungal » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:41 am

Still not of the question that it could still get in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#753 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:41 am

sma10 wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:This is extremely strong for a disturbance, but in the tropics, speed can kill. It's just going too fast to get properly developed. It's just a matter of time though.


Is this accurate? I have seen countless TC's over the years with forward speed of 15-20mph


It is if the system has winds impinging on it at the mid and upper levels from the West or WSW. It magnifies the shear, the LLC trying to form gets it upper level support blown away.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#754 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:43 am

definitely enough convection to close off a circ just needs a little more time.

expect a shift west in the models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#755 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:47 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#756 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:47 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
sma10 wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:This is extremely strong for a disturbance, but in the tropics, speed can kill. It's just going too fast to get properly developed. It's just a matter of time though.


Is this accurate? I have seen countless TC's over the years with forward speed of 15-20mph


It is if the system has winds impinging on it at the mid and upper levels from the West or WSW. It magnifies the shear, the LLC trying to form gets it upper level support blown away.


Ok, thanks. So really it's the shear preventing the development, which is not uncommon. All academic anyway as all models agree this will eventually slow down significantly.
I think there is very little doubt this will become Matthew.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#757 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:49 am

Clearly centered nearly right over Barbados and a little to the NW there is a weak surface reflection just seen on radar. question is is it enough for a upgrade. I think they will wait till 5pm. which by that time it will likely have a deepening LLV>

http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... r_400KMSRI
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#758 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:50 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The 50-55 kt sustained winds could still be significant for the Lesser Antilles though, even if there is no LLC...

:eek: is an euphemisma... that could pose trouble even if there's no LLC... all the activities outdoor etc.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#759 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:52 am

I was curious so I went back a few days in the TWO.

2pm outlook from the 23rd - 0%/20%
2pm outlook from the 26th - 70%/90%

If we get genesis today, it will be another successful job from the NHC. It also tells you how far out 5 days is when it comes to making a genesis forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#760 Postby HurrMark » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:54 am

AdamFirst wrote:This is extremely strong for a disturbance, but in the tropics, speed can kill. It's just going too fast to get properly developed. It's just a matter of time though.


I remember a tremendously strong wave in 1997 in the Caribbean that had sustained winds over 60 mph...but it was simply that...a wave. No west winds per recon. Never a named storm. Once it slows down, I think things will get cooking in a hurry.
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