#790 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:36 am
Wonder if there's any live cam's over on Barbados, Martinique, or St. Lucia? They're about to take it on the chin as the heavier convection tries to rotate over, but at minimum as the system itself simply moves westward. Stay safe down there and watch out for falling coconuts! I still don't see clear evidence of west winds either, not that it makes a bit of difference to those immediately in its path. Whether deemed T.D. or even named a T.S. I think that would be primarily academic right now. Assuming that the system continues to improve in organization and is a moderate (or stronger) Tropical Storm by tomorrow, than I don't believe that the overall long term track analysis will really be impacted one way or another. I think the biggest take away here is that a fairly large tropical storm or possibly hurricane will reach a cross-road as it approaches 75W. Unless we were dealing with only an ill defined tropical depression at that time, than I would think that the same dynamics in play will still impart whatever influences impacting the storms motion at that time. If this system were to reach that longitude faster or slower than expected, than I would think models would begin to sniff that out and adjust accordingly based on the strength of the ridge to its north at that point in time. I think that this system's large size might help prevent the mountains along S. America from inhibiting inflow. More important is whether the storm will have developed an anticyclone over it and/or whether southerly or westerly shear might continue to cause the storm to tilt southwest/northeast as it continues to move westward. I would think that a slow moving healthy and large hurricane at or near 13N & 75W might very much contribute toward pumping up the ridge to its north, thus impacting a more Northwesterly motion rather one turning as sharply towards the north. I could see a sharp northward turn in advance of a strong digging shortwave over the E. Conus, but that's just not appearing to be the case.
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Just saw the plotted W. winds as plotted by recon. Technically could be enough to classify I suppose but certainly not well defined quite yet. I'd guess NHC might hold off for the minute but issue a special tropical disturbance update indicating that a special advisory might be issued later this afternoon to upgrade at that time. (ummmm, in the immortal words of Rosanne Rosannadana - SNL, "Never-Mind" lol)
