Dean4Storms wrote:GEM had a better initialization spot than the GFS did.
GEM is like the Euro at 500mb.
Where is the Gulf trof?
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Dean4Storms wrote:GEM had a better initialization spot than the GFS did.
Alyono wrote:Of course, the UKMET shifts west
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.8N 61.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 12 14.1N 63.2W 1006 39
1200UTC 29.09.2016 24 14.3N 65.9W 1001 49
0000UTC 30.09.2016 36 14.2N 68.6W 993 58
1200UTC 30.09.2016 48 13.4N 70.5W 987 63
0000UTC 01.10.2016 60 13.1N 71.8W 983 65
1200UTC 01.10.2016 72 12.8N 72.9W 986 59
0000UTC 02.10.2016 84 12.8N 73.6W 989 52
1200UTC 02.10.2016 96 13.6N 74.5W 987 52
0000UTC 03.10.2016 108 15.2N 75.3W 979 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 120 17.2N 75.3W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 132 19.0N 75.4W 970 63
1200UTC 04.10.2016 144 20.6N 75.3W 982 59
Alyono wrote:Of course, the UKMET shifts west
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.8N 61.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 12 14.1N 63.2W 1006 39
1200UTC 29.09.2016 24 14.3N 65.9W 1001 49
0000UTC 30.09.2016 36 14.2N 68.6W 993 58
1200UTC 30.09.2016 48 13.4N 70.5W 987 63
0000UTC 01.10.2016 60 13.1N 71.8W 983 65
1200UTC 01.10.2016 72 12.8N 72.9W 986 59
0000UTC 02.10.2016 84 12.8N 73.6W 989 52
1200UTC 02.10.2016 96 13.6N 74.5W 987 52
0000UTC 03.10.2016 108 15.2N 75.3W 979 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 120 17.2N 75.3W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 132 19.0N 75.4W 970 63
1200UTC 04.10.2016 144 20.6N 75.3W 982 59
JPmia wrote:Sounds like we should ignore this GFS run until we can verify the initialization and compare the two.. then 18z would bring us back to accuracy?
Alyono wrote:the east turn of the Canadian away from the US is bull you know what
It has a phantom TC to the east that creates a weakness
p1nheadlarry wrote:It might be headed for the weakness, but already looking similar to what's it showed yesterday, something like Sandy/1938
gatorcane wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:Wow, GEM has gone much further West!
Yes trending toward the Euro, heading NW at 102 hours:![]()
gatorcane wrote:Alyono wrote:the east turn of the Canadian away from the US is bull you know what
It has a phantom TC to the east that creates a weakness
Yeah it seems suspicious. The other thing is that I notice that even on the GFS now, it builds back the Bermuda high around the timeframe the Euro starts to build it back (around 200 hours) which turns the cyclone more WNW north of Eastern Cuba on the last couple of Euro runs.
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