ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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RL3AO
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#841 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:04 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:Personally, I don't think it'll impact Florida other than rip currents, Mid/Atlantic or Northeast though, or hopefully just stay out to sea (Not so good for Cuba/Jamaica/Haiti though)

I personally don't think it will impact Florida either.


Well, you may end up being correct. However, the European ensembles still suggest a significant risk for Florida. Hopefully people, especially on the east coast of Florida are prepared or getting ready to prepare.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/781143002035187712


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#842 Postby chrisjslucia » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:05 am

Waiting for the man. Stormcarib's tools tell me that in relation to my location Mathew is hovering south:
Results for 14.1N, 60.9W (me):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 13.4N, 61.0W or about 46.9 miles (75.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is Wednesday, September 28 at 12:12PM AST.

We're getting intermittent showers here right now but no strong winds as yet. Looking at the radar, that seems about to change very soon!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#843 Postby JaxGator » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:10 am

The GFS has been more or less persistent on intensity but it also has been trending more west the last two days bit by bit.
Last edited by JaxGator on Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#844 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:14 am

JaxGator wrote:The GFS has been more or less persistent on intensity but it has been trending more west the last two days bit by bit.


You may want to check the models thread. The 12z Gfs just shifted east and is back to hitting Haiti


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#845 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:14 am

RL3AO wrote:Well, you may end up being correct. However, the European ensembles still suggest a significant risk for Florida. Hopefully people, especially on the east coast of Florida are prepared or getting ready to prepare.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/7 ... 2035187712


Nope I doubt anybody is getting prepared in South Florida. Too many false alarms and storms moving through the Bahamas to our east for over a decade. Lots of complacency around here. If we are in the 5 day window though, I think some folks will be preparing.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#846 Postby JaxGator » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:22 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
JaxGator wrote:The GFS has been more or less persistent on intensity but it has been trending more west the last two days bit by bit.


You may want to check the models thread. The 12z Gfs just shifted east and is back to hitting Haiti


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That would not be good for them at all. Though some on here and pro-met, Alyono, have said that the latest GFS run used the center position of the last "best track" before recon located the current center. Don't know what difference it'll make but we'll see.
Last edited by JaxGator on Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#847 Postby psyclone » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:23 am

BobHarlem wrote:Personally, I don't think it'll impact Florida other than rip currents, Mid/Atlantic or Northeast though, or hopefully just stay out to sea (Not so good for Cuba/Jamaica/Haiti though)

I completely agree and have strongly felt that way since the original east swing. Should that change we have plenty of time...otherwise I'm expecting the standard northward through the Bahamas track...something we've become accustomed to. For a good late season florida setup, I'm looking for development much farther to the west (northwest Caribbean)... In this case, with development so far east, there's a more than likely chance it gets scooped up east of the state. As always we watch in case it changes.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#848 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:33 am

In the US, anywhere between Miami and Cape Cod need to watch this. More specifically, Florida and the Carolinas could be in Matthew's potential track. But it's too long-range to be certain about Matthew's eventual future.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#849 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:37 am

I dont think I would rule out a Betsy like track across FL into the GOM quite yet either. Thats still on the table as well.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#850 Postby OntarioEggplant » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:42 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
JaxGator wrote:The GFS has been more or less persistent on intensity but it has been trending more west the last two days bit by bit.


You may want to check the models thread. The 12z Gfs just shifted east and is back to hitting Haiti


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Because of the incorrect initialization.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#851 Postby CourierPR » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:44 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I dont think I would rule out a Betsy like track across FL into the GOM quite yet either. Thats still on the table as well.


Yes, some folks are really certain Matthew will miss the US at this point. I just shake my head. I was tempted to post that my dog thinks it will hit Florida, but I restrained myself. I just don't get how some amateurs think they've got this storm's future track nailed down.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#852 Postby OntarioEggplant » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:44 am

Anyone who says the GFS has been consistent needs to look at where it's had it 10 days out. It has been all over the place.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#853 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:46 am

Kazmit_ wrote:In the US, anywhere between Miami and Cape Cod need to watch this. More specifically, Florida and the Carolinas could be in Matthew's potential track. But it's too long-range to be certain about Matthew's eventual future.


And by Florida include the gulf, especially the SW coast. That's my gut.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#854 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:47 am

OntarioEggplant wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
JaxGator wrote:The GFS has been more or less persistent on intensity but it has been trending more west the last two days bit by bit.


You may want to check the models thread. The 12z Gfs just shifted east and is back to hitting Haiti


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk


Because of the incorrect initialization.


not accurate at all
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#855 Postby OntarioEggplant » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:48 am

Alyono wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
You may want to check the models thread. The 12z Gfs just shifted east and is back to hitting Haiti


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk


Because of the incorrect initialization.


not accurate at all


You can see the more northerly initialization by comparing this with previous model runs. It's clear how that played out.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#856 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:53 am

Center is now under the southern part of the convection and clearly the GFS is 1 degree or so farther north than reality
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#857 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:55 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Center is now under the southern part of the convection and clearly the GFS is 1 degree or so farther north than reality


Looks like another day of waiting, after the 12 ECMWF that is. NHC probably not changing their track too much anyway five days out.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#858 Postby Michele B » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:58 am

p1nheadlarry wrote:
Kazmit_ wrote:In the US, anywhere between Miami and Cape Cod need to watch this. More specifically, Florida and the Carolinas could be in Matthew's potential track. But it's too long-range to be certain about Matthew's eventual future.


And by Florida include the gulf, especially the SW coast. That's my gut.



Mine, too, Larry.

:(
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#859 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:00 pm

One things for sure, 97L is moving pretty quickly. 18 knots.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#860 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:04 pm

Continues to improve on satellite.

Image

Wouldn't be surprised if it has the inner core set up by tonight/tomorrow morning.
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