ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ken711]

East of Bermuda is still on the table.

Don't see that happening at all.

[KWT]

GFDL now moves more or less in line with other model, still to the west of the GFS but now a Cuba landfall.

HWRF just to the west of Haiti, which would make a big difference to strength for the Bahamas.

[ronjon]

Biggest difference between GFS and ECM is at 96 hrs - ECM position about 200 miles south of GFS. So I suppose we'll know much sooner which model had it correct.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is definitely an East Coast threat. The models can just as easily swing bask West again by tomorrow

[chaser1]

JMA through 72 hours is much further west than yesterday's run. However, it doesn't appear to have the current strength right. Shows it relatively weak until clearing South America.

I frankly know little about the JMA model and would be curious on others' over-all take on it and how they feel it compares to the EURO or UK.

With regards though to how its presently forecasting the upper synoptics however, from what i'm seeing looking at its 72 hour forecast, I'd guess that it might soon advertise a trajectory keeping Matthew just south and west of Jamaica and toward Cuba from there. (yikes)

[SEASON_CANCELED]

thats a very charlyesque recurve. Hope it stays east

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z Euro Initiated.

[tolakram]

Let's try to cut out the back and forth in here please. I'm asking all of us to self moderate and don't post if you are not asking a model question or making an informed statement about a model run. We have a discussion thread for Matthew and you can discuss away in there. MUCH appreciated.

[srva80]

12z Euro Initiated a little north and stronger??

[KWT]

HWRF hitting east Cuba around 940mbs, would be a notable landfalling hurricane were that to happen!

[fci]

Are the models showing the disruption a path over the mountains of Eastern Cuba would cause?
I think historically even strong storms get pretty shredded on that path.

[DESTRUCTION5]

24 hr

[Alyono]

Are the models showing the disruption a path over the mountains of Eastern Cuba would cause?
I think historically even strong storms get pretty shredded on that path.

As long as it does not doddle, it should be fine crossing Cuba. Maybe weaken 1-2 categories but that is all.

Dennis in 2005 weakened so much because it sat over Cuba for a good 12 hours

[ThetaE]

Seems like the Euro is slightly NE and stronger through 48 compared to the last 12z run... Though it's unclear if it's simply further NE or slower.

[DESTRUCTION5]

48...Stronger

[Blown Away]

Faster than 00z... May be farther E ultimately like the GFS?

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

It's a little stronger and slower than the previous 12Z run, hard to tell with the 0Z since it's 12 hours ago and we're dealing with 24h increments. I also want to say it's a little slower and stronger.

[wxmann_91]

It's a little stronger and slower than the previous 12Z run, hard to tell with the 0Z since it's 12 hours ago and we're dealing with 24h increments. I also want to say it's a little slower and stronger.

Also a little further north/east, though not as far north/east as the GFS.

[tolakram]

Here is the 12Z consistency. Rock solid? Looks significantly northeast of the last 12z run.