ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Looks like it may stall for a while north of the Bahamas around days 8-10. That may be far enough east of the U.S. to keep it offshore until the next upper trof arrives. I wouldn't bet my life on that, yet. We may be dealing with Matthew into November... (a joke).
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- wxmann_91
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
sma10 wrote:Alyono wrote:where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run
of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.
Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however
True, that low in the NE came out of nowhere this run. Obviously, Matthew's movements make sense given that low, but if it turns out to be specious, it's hard to figure what his movement would have been otherwise. I guess we just have to wait until the next run.
There's been some semblance of troughiness in the western Atlantic for awhile now (and is the same piece of energy that cuts off over the Ohio Valley this week, producing flooding threats in the Mid-Atlantic). This is probably the most cut-off in the Atlantic it has been depicted by the Euro. Sometimes Euro is a bit too cut off with these though, and we'll have to watch for that. The GFS, in the meanwhile, tends to be too progressive with these types of setups, and it shows that piece of energy zipping off to the east. Completely different progressions at H5.
Given the range of solutions out there, nothing has really changed in that the most probable solution is OTS in the long range. But FL, New England, Nova Scotia, Bermuda still all in play.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
wxman57 wrote:Looks like it may stall for a while north of the Bahamas around days 8-10. That may be far enough east of the U.S. to keep it offshore until the next upper trof arrives. I wouldn't bet my life on that, yet. We may be dealing with Matthew into November... (a joke).
So this is like a Joaquin scenario possibly?
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
GEFS 12Z run, 0 - 192


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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The 12z GFS ensembles raise and eyebrow for the Mid-Atlantic. More bullish on an impact in that area than the previous runs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Considering where it's at "right now" nothing is off the table including the Gulf. IMO
sma10 wrote:Alyono wrote:where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run
of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.
Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however
True, that low in the NE came out of nowhere this run. Obviously, Matthew's movements make sense given that low, but if it turns out to be specious, it's hard to figure what his movement would have been otherwise. I guess we just have to wait until the next run.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I agree that this is definitely starting to look like a gradual OTS shift. But the US should pay attention just in case. Stranger things have happened
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run
of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.
Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however
And while we're at it, where did that low over Yucatan come from as well?
It's plainly obvious why late October and November W. Caribbean storms might track northward (or even NNE). Seeing the pattern now, I"m scratching my head trying to make sense of how anomalously increased 500mb heights seem to lead to a general model consensus of an 120-144 hour exit from near E. Cuba and north from there?

Then again, maybe the models aren't all crazy - maybe we'll soon see upper 40's along the N. Gulf coast pretty soon

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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Looks like initial position on euro was north of Barbados gfs and CMC right over barbados
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Wow, when was the last time Bastardi agreeded with JMA?
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
GFDL track...


Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Sep 28, 2016 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Bernie Rayno has a video explaining why he thinks the GFS is wrong and the GOM is still on the table
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail ... Start=true
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail ... Start=true
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
galaxy401 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Looks like it may stall for a while north of the Bahamas around days 8-10. That may be far enough east of the U.S. to keep it offshore until the next upper trof arrives. I wouldn't bet my life on that, yet. We may be dealing with Matthew into November... (a joke).
So this is like a Joaquin scenario possibly?
I still think a FL hit is on the table. I dont think the GFS is right
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Wow, when was the last time Bastardi agreeded with JMA?
Joe Bastardi referencing Isidore from 2002 as the Euro outperforming the GFS. Really?! 14 year old model comparison?!

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- centuryv58
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
ScottNAtlanta wrote:galaxy401 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Looks like it may stall for a while north of the Bahamas around days 8-10. That may be far enough east of the U.S. to keep it offshore until the next upper trof arrives. I wouldn't bet my life on that, yet. We may be dealing with Matthew into November... (a joke).
So this is like a Joaquin scenario possibly?
I still think a FL hit is on the table. I dont think the GFS is right
So does JB. Still a waiting game.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Any Florida hit might have to wait about 2 weeks (about the time I'm there). Nothing to indicate an initial track to the Peninsula. Maybe if it's blocked near the Bahamas in 8-10 days then gets shoved west. Matthew may rack up more than half the season's ACE points.
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