ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2661 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:01 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2662 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:03 pm

90 hours landfall E Jamaica, W of 12z...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2663 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:03 pm

looks like it clips far eastern Jamaica this run. Also, it looks to be very intense. Any further west, and this will hit Kingston directly
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2664 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:03 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:It's over Eastern Jamaica at 90h and it is looking like that trough the GFS has been insisting on over the eastern Gulf isn't going to be as strong as it has previously said.


Agreed. The last few runs have been trending away from a stronger trough.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2665 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:04 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2666 Postby pcolaman » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:07 pm

Well usually when a strong fron comes thru here in nw Fla we get stronger winds from the north. That hasn't been the case with this one.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2667 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:07 pm

Looks like a run only @150 miles from SFL as a major...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2668 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:09 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2669 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:10 pm

No escaping that next trough over the Rockies.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2670 Postby CourierPR » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:10 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:It's over Eastern Jamaica at 90h and it is looking like that trough the GFS has been insisting on over the eastern Gulf isn't going to be as strong as it has previously said.


Last night I read a forecast that indicated the front would stall around Pensacola a dissipate.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2671 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:10 pm

How funny. GFS continuing trend of moving a couple miles left with every run. I suppose it will hit Florida after 25 more runs. LOL
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2672 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:11 pm

Back to nearly the same position as previous run.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2673 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:11 pm

Exactly the same position as last run @ 126 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2674 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:13 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2675 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:13 pm

GFS at @126 hours, the Euro is near Haiti...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2676 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:15 pm

Still exact same position as previous run. :D

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2677 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:18 pm

Now slower than previous run but not further west.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2678 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:20 pm

It's amazing how hard the GFS wants to push Matthew against that ridge.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2679 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:21 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2680 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:22 pm

sma10 wrote:How funny. GFS continuing trend of moving a couple miles left with every run. I suppose it will hit Florida after 25 more runs. LOL
it will have 25 more runs befow Florida
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