ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

I am afraid the NHC intensity forecast will bust if they continue to rely heavily on the SHIPS model or the IVCN consensus. Matthew is developing a inner core and I won't be surprised to see this rapidly intensifying once the shear drops.

I think this is the biggest reason they aren't as bullish on the intensity as the models are--they are accounting for the possibility that the shear simply doesn't drop to start with, and I think this is a distinct possibility as the models have done fairly poorly with the shear so far.

[Alyono]

the NHC intensity forecast is highly deficient from a science perspective.

Again, they have this only intensifying by 5 kts over 48 hours under low shear and some of the world's highest heat content. Yet, they show more intensification during shear of the next couple of days

If they ever want to have a chance t predicting rapid intensity changes, they need to start using the global model intensity forecasts, which are now quite good. When global models are nearly all showing cat 3+, chances are this is going to be very very intense, not a cat 2

[1900hurricane]

Much tighter, symmetrical core in Matthew during latest recon pass compared to the previous one a little over an hour ago.

Careful with that assumption. Recon did circle back around a little bit on the previous pass to try and hit the absolute center.

[MaineWeatherNut]

First 80kt + winds I've seen in Recon this trip...

025000 1443N 06805W 6956 03129 0039 +098 +098 142079 080 055 021 03
025030 1444N 06804W 6972 03115 0033 +100 +100 149067 080 054 016 00

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If NHC thinks this is only going to intensify 15-20kt over 4 days, I have some oceanfront property in Switzerland to sell them. The storm should only gradually intensify through tomorrow, but rapid intensification is a distinct possibility thereafter. There's a reason the GFS/ECMWF/HWRF all have a Category 4 hurricane. This happened with Gaston too.

[HurricaneBelle]

Just a quick comment. What a perfect symmetrical cdo. First I've seen this season.

Gaston says hello.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/781690597560164352

[ThetaE]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modelling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

[toad strangler]

Earlier W shifts in some models not enough to convince the brass as of yet.

[psyclone]

I notice the new track did not shift westward and remains far enough eastward to not bother FL...Looks like it ends a good distance ESE of Andros having moved nearly due north between the last two forecast points. With the latter forecast points now nearing the latitude of FL watching these forecasts evolve will be interesting. also the other products like the wind probabilities maps will increasingly become of value. the consistent target zone of eastern Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica and the Bahamas continue to be the recurrent theme.

[dexterlabio]

I know we saw Gaston but it's been a long time since we saw a low-end hurricane exploding into a major within a few hours in this basin. I've seen the look of intense cyclones in my part of the world that underwent very rapid intensification over the past few years, and in my amateur opinion Matthew kinda have that look as well..

[CourierPR]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

[Hurricaneman]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

Probably means a recurve farther west so Florida will have to watch this

[ThetaE]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

Thanks, good to know. That's not necessarily indicative of a quicker rebuilding of the ridge after Matthew crosses into the Bahamas, but it would certainly imply a potentially longer delay to the initial northward turn.

[sponger]

My bud is a met there. i will see what he knows!

[toad strangler]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

I watch Steve Weagle all the time. Very good met. BUT, I did not see this particular segment and if he did have things to say as quoted above you would think the 0z's would show this. We shall see.

[AutoPenalti]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

That's rather interesting, but at the same time, more proof is needed.

[Bocadude85]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

Interesting...curious how he would know this information ?

[TheStormExpert]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

I watch Steve Weagle all the time. Very good met. BUT, I did not see this particular segment and if he did have things to say as quoted above you would think the 0z's would show this. We shall see.

Man I missed the 11pm newscast! Which forum was it by the way?

[Hammy]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

That's rather interesting, but at the same time, more proof is needed.

We should have a good idea in the next several hours once the models start coming in. If this is true then there should be a decent westward shift.