ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AJC3]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

The 1000mb being shown is at the 500mb level, not at the surface.

This is not only incorrect, but is physically impossible. A 500MB constant pressure map has contours of height on it, not pressure.

[USTropics]

Jamaica landfall incoming on the 00z GFS:

[Alyono]

This looks as if it will be a cat 3 strike on Kingston. Basically, a repeat of Gilbert

[SeGaBob]

North at 84 hours

[toad strangler]

Through 84 ridge is eroding. I would imagine a due N movement to follow

[sponger]

That is definitely farther west. Stronger ridging indeed!

[SouthFLTropics]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

The 1000mb being shown is at the 500mb level, not at the surface.

This is not only incorrect, but is physically impossible. A 500MB constant pressure map has contours of height on it, not pressure.

I apologize...I looked at it wrong.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge is building back now.

[p1nheadlarry]

This looks as if it will be a cat 3 strike on Kingston. Basically, a repeat of Gilbert

Except Gilbert went from east to west across the island, I'm not sure if this angle of approach is worse for Kingston as I know little about Jamaica's topography. Honestly only other city I know of is Savlamar.

[toad strangler]

Jamaica NAILED @ 90

[Hurricaneman]

This is going to end up over or just west of Andros Island on this run

[fci]

Going west of 75 degrees before the major Caribbean islands, that's a bit west of the last run, correct?

NHC track has never been west of 75.5W, I believe.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is going to end up over or just west of Andros Island on this run

Maybe not...it all depends on whether or not the ridge builds back in like the 12z Euro showed.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Basically, GFS has been trending toward weaker trough, ridge breaks down slower....Matthew spends more time in the Caribbean.

[TimeZone]

That's a terrible run for Jamaica.

[USTropics]

Jamaica landfall, ridging is breaking down but remains stronger from the past GFS runs, trough is tilted more NE to SW as well:

[toad strangler]

Yup, due N now @ 96 after Jamaica hit

[1900hurricane]

Some subtle but notable differences have begun to show up in the 500 mb height configuration by tau 96.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I almost wonder if the trend is toward Matthew meandering in the Central Bahamas before getting kicked out to sea.

[Hurricaneman]

looks like the trough is weaker