ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2881 Postby AJC3 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:58 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
chaser1 wrote:I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?


The 1000mb being shown is at the 500mb level, not at the surface.


This is not only incorrect, but is physically impossible. A 500MB constant pressure map has contours of height on it, not pressure.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2882 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:59 pm

Jamaica landfall incoming on the 00z GFS:

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2883 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:59 pm

This looks as if it will be a cat 3 strike on Kingston. Basically, a repeat of Gilbert
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2884 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:00 pm

North at 84 hours
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2885 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:00 pm

Through 84 ridge is eroding. I would imagine a due N movement to follow

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Last edited by toad strangler on Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2886 Postby sponger » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:00 pm

That is definitely farther west. Stronger ridging indeed!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2887 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:01 pm

AJC3 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
chaser1 wrote:I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?


The 1000mb being shown is at the 500mb level, not at the surface.


This is not only incorrect, but is physically impossible. A 500MB constant pressure map has contours of height on it, not pressure.


I apologize...I looked at it wrong.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2888 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:01 pm

Ridge is building back now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2889 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:01 pm

Alyono wrote:This looks as if it will be a cat 3 strike on Kingston. Basically, a repeat of Gilbert


Except Gilbert went from east to west across the island, I'm not sure if this angle of approach is worse for Kingston as I know little about Jamaica's topography. Honestly only other city I know of is Savlamar.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2890 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:01 pm

Jamaica NAILED @ 90
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2891 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:02 pm

This is going to end up over or just west of Andros Island on this run
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2892 Postby fci » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:02 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:Going west of 75 degrees before the major Caribbean islands, that's a bit west of the last run, correct?


NHC track has never been west of 75.5W, I believe.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2893 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:03 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:This is going to end up over or just west of Andros Island on this run


Maybe not...it all depends on whether or not the ridge builds back in like the 12z Euro showed.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2894 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:03 pm

Basically, GFS has been trending toward weaker trough, ridge breaks down slower....Matthew spends more time in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2895 Postby TimeZone » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:03 pm

That's a terrible run for Jamaica. :(
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2896 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:04 pm

Jamaica landfall, ridging is breaking down but remains stronger from the past GFS runs, trough is tilted more NE to SW as well:

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2897 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:04 pm

Yup, due N now @ 96 after Jamaica hit
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2898 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:04 pm

Some subtle but notable differences have begun to show up in the 500 mb height configuration by tau 96.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2899 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:05 pm

I almost wonder if the trend is toward Matthew meandering in the Central Bahamas before getting kicked out to sea.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2900 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:05 pm

looks like the trough is weaker
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