ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

The trough over the Midwest needs to dig as fast as possible...that will be the only thing that saves OBX on this run.

[toad strangler]

Through 120 ridge trying to build back in but no cigar. Up up and away SE of FL

[Blown Away]

120 hours = Andros Island... NNW??

[SeGaBob]

126 NNW

[floridasun78]

Through 120 ridge trying to build back in but no cigar. Up up and away from FL

that be move alway from south fl after crossing central cuba?

[AtlanticWind]

Too close for comfort 5 days out

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thats assuming that the Euro run tonight swings back west. Just when I thought it had a good idea of the west trend it went east while others went west. This is so crazy so dies tonights Euro come back west withe the GFS, guess we will see.

[TheStormExpert]

132hrs.: over the Abacoa Islands.

[toad strangler]

East coast of FL again being licked by outer most bands from Matthew.

[LarryWx]

At hour 126 on 0Z GFS, I estimate he is 125 miles SSW of the 18 GFS position.

[1900hurricane]

Still getting the Fujiwhara slingshot from the eastern Gulf vort max.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Really, anything beyond this timestamp is fantasy.

Most interesting points to take from this run:
*GFS continues to trend slower.
*First trough trends weaker.
*Probably major impacts for Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

[Bocadude85]

132hrs.: over the Abacoa Islands.

At 138 hours looks like it clips the east end on Grand Bahama island

[floridasun78]

put now models have data from plane not like other run didnt i heard my weather man that plane take air sample in bahama a area he show were fly by

[Alyono]

looks like a direct hit on Nassau this run

[SouthFLTropics]

At a minimum the beach erosion and rip currents are going to be off the chart across the entire Southeastern seaboard. Stay out of the water and expect small craft advisories and possibly gale warnings. If the next few runs continue left then we've got bigger issues. First up is Jamaica though...it's been a while since they took a direct hit.

[AtlanticWind]

About 150 miles offshore from me in ft lauderdale

[sponger]

The biggest question now is how much strengthening prior to Jamaica? At this rate, we could see A Cat 2 tomorrow.

[Alyono]

UKMET says COLUMBIA, then Haiti, before turning to the NW

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2016 0 14.3N 68.2W 990 63
1200UTC 30.09.2016 12 13.2N 70.3W 993 54
0000UTC 01.10.2016 24 12.7N 71.3W 992 53
1200UTC 01.10.2016 36 12.5N 71.7W 994 50
0000UTC 02.10.2016 48 13.1N 72.5W 991 52
1200UTC 02.10.2016 60 13.7N 73.6W 989 50
0000UTC 03.10.2016 72 15.3N 74.2W 981 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 84 16.6N 74.5W 978 64
0000UTC 04.10.2016 96 18.0N 73.7W 978 53
1200UTC 04.10.2016 108 19.6N 73.1W 985 58
0000UTC 05.10.2016 120 20.8N 73.1W 985 54
1200UTC 05.10.2016 132 21.5N 73.8W 989 54
0000UTC 06.10.2016 144 22.4N 74.7W 984 56

[1900hurricane]

500 mb heights still very inconsistent beyond tau 120.