
ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Okay, everyone ready for tonight's bonus challenge question?
Just a stone throw away from the Florida coast, this Island get-a-way boasts fun, fishing, diving, and seafood delicacies! But, hold on to your hats folks and see if you can name the top 5 reasons NOT to travel to the paradise destination - Andros Island next week.
Answer #1 - GFS 0Z run - Hurricane Landfall in 126 hr.'s (or 6Z Wed)
Answer #2 - CMC 0Z run - Hurricane Landfall in 108 hr.'s (or 12Z Tue)
Answer #3 - GEM 12 run - Hurricane Landfall in 102 hr.'s (or 6Z Tue)
Answer #4 - JMA 12 run - Hurricane Landfall in 132 hr.'s (or 12Z Wed)
Answer #5 - HWRF 0Z run - Eye Wall Conditions in 108 hr.'s (or 12z Tue)
...but if you said GFDL, well TOO BAD - you lose, and are off to Jupiter, Florida for a Hurricane Landfall in 126 hours (or 06 Wed)
Just a stone throw away from the Florida coast, this Island get-a-way boasts fun, fishing, diving, and seafood delicacies! But, hold on to your hats folks and see if you can name the top 5 reasons NOT to travel to the paradise destination - Andros Island next week.
Answer #1 - GFS 0Z run - Hurricane Landfall in 126 hr.'s (or 6Z Wed)
Answer #2 - CMC 0Z run - Hurricane Landfall in 108 hr.'s (or 12Z Tue)
Answer #3 - GEM 12 run - Hurricane Landfall in 102 hr.'s (or 6Z Tue)
Answer #4 - JMA 12 run - Hurricane Landfall in 132 hr.'s (or 12Z Wed)
Answer #5 - HWRF 0Z run - Eye Wall Conditions in 108 hr.'s (or 12z Tue)
...but if you said GFDL, well TOO BAD - you lose, and are off to Jupiter, Florida for a Hurricane Landfall in 126 hours (or 06 Wed)
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
What's wrong with Euro? It just bumped north for absolutely no reason.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:What's wrong with Euro? It just bumped north for absolutely no reason.
12z run did the same thing
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Wow so far identical to 12z run through 96hrs
Last edited by SFLcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The trends are more west with every model run. That is not good thing for Florida at all. If hurricane Matthew keeps getting stronger will it go more west. The stronger the storm the longer it will take to turn. The trend has been west right now I think Matthew is going over Nassau for sure. Just an opinion not a forecast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SFLcane wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:What's wrong with Euro? It just bumped north for absolutely no reason.
12z run did the same thing
by the way thats a nne movement,.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

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I believe the sky is falling...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Same spot as Ukmet at 96hrs believe it or not. Lets see if it turns back WNW after that like the Ukmet does
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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SFLcane wrote:Wow so far identical to 12z run through 96hrs
It's southwest of the 12z...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
This is just a thought, but I don't know what "mechanical" or data transfer process applies, but is there any chance that tonight's added Gulfstream data might not have yet been ingested in time for the 0Z EURO run?
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
In this case I doubt we'll see much of a cone shift by the NHC. If anything, they may shift day 3-5 south (showing slower motion).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Basically windward passage.
Lets see if the ridge builds back in after 120 hours, or it takes it OTS.
Lets see if the ridge builds back in after 120 hours, or it takes it OTS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Same as Ukmet through 120hrs. Watch for WNW motion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Wow, interesting development, looks to hit OTS. Hmm...
EDIT: Nope there's that WNW movement Hr 144, lol.
EDIT: Nope there's that WNW movement Hr 144, lol.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Interesting to note Gfs, Canadian, Navy and Hwrf have all slowed their speeds to come closer to the Euro speeds despite the different tracks....
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Based on hour 120, I'm guessing the 0Z Euro will recurve east of the CONUS. Let's see.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
A year later and it's Joaquin all over again. Euro says east while most other guidance says west. Gotta love history repeating itself and keeping all these poor people up for no good reason 
This is really maddening. We need to be able to rely on the global models and 5 days out is not too much to ask. How is it that in 2012 ECMWF nailed Sandy from 8 days out? That's incredible and you'd think in 4 years the models would be better. So - either the GFS scores it this year or the ECMWF still has better overall physics and once again spares the USA (virtually speaking of course).
The only thing I wonder about as being a possible caveat for all of the 00z models now is this: they were all initialized with a 75mph hurricane not a 100 mph hurricane. Does this change anything with steering? Pumping the ridge as they say? No change at all? I do wonder....

This is really maddening. We need to be able to rely on the global models and 5 days out is not too much to ask. How is it that in 2012 ECMWF nailed Sandy from 8 days out? That's incredible and you'd think in 4 years the models would be better. So - either the GFS scores it this year or the ECMWF still has better overall physics and once again spares the USA (virtually speaking of course).
The only thing I wonder about as being a possible caveat for all of the 00z models now is this: they were all initialized with a 75mph hurricane not a 100 mph hurricane. Does this change anything with steering? Pumping the ridge as they say? No change at all? I do wonder....
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