ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
No one can take from this run - or any one run this far out, what "will be", other than what would appear to be ebb and flow of how the track might be evolving. I'd say it's reasonable to suggest that the needle on "the risk scale" for S. Florida certainly did not go lower, and I'd guess the NHC track at 5:00pm to possibly be bumped westward a tiny bit.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
At least it's looking better with the earlier and more pronounced recurve for the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Is this going to get blocked on day 10 12Z Euro map? Let's see.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
There's a reason runs past 5 days shouldn't be taken seriously. Euro run is laughably different compared to previous one. Massive uncertainty once it exits Cuba remains.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
LarryWx wrote:Is this going to get blocked on day 10 12Z Euro map? Let's see.
That ridge at hr 216 is significantly stronger and further E than the 0z run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tolakram wrote:Odd setup north of Matthew. Is that some kind of noreaster moving up the coast?
[image removed]
More or less. The shortwave N of Bermuda and the trough that started in the plains and then progresses through the Great Lakes phase this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:tolakram wrote:
look at that ridge building to the north if it does not find its way through the weakness to the ENE its going to get trapped.
Meaning???
It'll stall??
Turn west??
What??
Help a novice out, here!

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Again, the west shift continues. I don't know what the EURO did there but it still has that ridge dominating the trough.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Couple of models are trying to develop an area of low pressure northeast of Matthew & that would weaken the ridge somewhat if that doesn't pan out then the ridge will be stronger and it will head west!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I mean we are talking nearly a 1000 mile difference from 00z to this one with a ridge vs a trof lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Blocked on the 240 Euro, actually drifts south. 
929MB on the low-res.


929MB on the low-res.

Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Trapped and moved south !! lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
hurricaneCW wrote:There's a reason runs past 5 days shouldn't be taken seriously. Euro run is laughably different compared to previous one. Massive uncertainty once it exits Cuba remains.
How far west on the island of Cuba are there mountains that can "influence" Matt?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
if you run the loop. it actually does a look just like jeanne did.. craziness.. and nearly the exact same spot
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
it stalls!!!!!!!!! so if that low to the northeast doesn't develop watch out!! it will go west
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
All, Forget everything after 120 hours. The pattern that is shown at 120 hours almost guarantees the second trough can't pick up Matthew. The setup and physics won't allow it. That is a big problem for the US. That is the last train out of town...
It has to come west eventually...wow...I am floored
It has to come west eventually...wow...I am floored
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:it stalls!!!!!!!!! so if that low to the northeast doesn't develop watch out!! it will go west
Stalls WHERE? All I have is this thread. Lol.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
drezee wrote:All, Forget everything after 120 hours. The pattern that is shown at 120 hours almost guarantees the second trough can't pick up Matthew. The setup and physics won't allow it. That is a big problem for the US. That is the last train out of town...
It has to come west eventually...wow...I am floored
That is why I kept telling myself - this setup can't be as straightforward as the normally unreliable CMC and NAVGEM models are making it seem. They have been calling for quick recurve since the beginning. But seems it may not be that easy.
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