ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3381 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:52 pm

No one can take from this run - or any one run this far out, what "will be", other than what would appear to be ebb and flow of how the track might be evolving. I'd say it's reasonable to suggest that the needle on "the risk scale" for S. Florida certainly did not go lower, and I'd guess the NHC track at 5:00pm to possibly be bumped westward a tiny bit.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3382 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:52 pm

At least it's looking better with the earlier and more pronounced recurve for the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3383 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:53 pm

Is this going to get blocked on day 10 12Z Euro map? Let's see.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3384 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:54 pm

There's a reason runs past 5 days shouldn't be taken seriously. Euro run is laughably different compared to previous one. Massive uncertainty once it exits Cuba remains.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3385 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:54 pm

LarryWx wrote:Is this going to get blocked on day 10 12Z Euro map? Let's see.


That ridge at hr 216 is significantly stronger and further E than the 0z run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3386 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:54 pm

tolakram wrote:Odd setup north of Matthew. Is that some kind of noreaster moving up the coast?

[image removed]

More or less. The shortwave N of Bermuda and the trough that started in the plains and then progresses through the Great Lakes phase this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3387 Postby Michele B » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image



look at that ridge building to the north if it does not find its way through the weakness to the ENE its going to get trapped.



Meaning???

It'll stall??

Turn west??

What??

Help a novice out, here!

:)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3388 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:55 pm

Again, the west shift continues. I don't know what the EURO did there but it still has that ridge dominating the trough.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3389 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:56 pm

Couple of models are trying to develop an area of low pressure northeast of Matthew & that would weaken the ridge somewhat if that doesn't pan out then the ridge will be stronger and it will head west!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3390 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:56 pm

I mean we are talking nearly a 1000 mile difference from 00z to this one with a ridge vs a trof lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3391 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:56 pm

240 hr stall!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3392 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:56 pm

Blocked on the 240 Euro, actually drifts south. :eek:

929MB on the low-res.

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3393 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:57 pm

Trapped and moved south !! lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3394 Postby Michele B » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:57 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:There's a reason runs past 5 days shouldn't be taken seriously. Euro run is laughably different compared to previous one. Massive uncertainty once it exits Cuba remains.


How far west on the island of Cuba are there mountains that can "influence" Matt?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3395 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:58 pm

if you run the loop. it actually does a look just like jeanne did.. craziness.. and nearly the exact same spot
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3396 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:58 pm

it stalls!!!!!!!!! so if that low to the northeast doesn't develop watch out!! it will go west
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3397 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:58 pm

All, Forget everything after 120 hours. The pattern that is shown at 120 hours almost guarantees the second trough can't pick up Matthew. The setup and physics won't allow it. That is a big problem for the US. That is the last train out of town...

It has to come west eventually...wow...I am floored
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3398 Postby Raebie » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:59 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:it stalls!!!!!!!!! so if that low to the northeast doesn't develop watch out!! it will go west


Stalls WHERE? All I have is this thread. Lol.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3399 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:59 pm

drezee wrote:All, Forget everything after 120 hours. The pattern that is shown at 120 hours almost guarantees the second trough can't pick up Matthew. The setup and physics won't allow it. That is a big problem for the US. That is the last train out of town...

It has to come west eventually...wow...I am floored


That is why I kept telling myself - this setup can't be as straightforward as the normally unreliable CMC and NAVGEM models are making it seem. They have been calling for quick recurve since the beginning. But seems it may not be that easy.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3400 Postby davidiowx » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:00 pm

This is pretty comical
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