ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3357
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2081 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:46 pm

InRRwetrust wrote:
TimeZone wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Jeez. 127 knots (146 mph) at the surface per new dropsonde.


What?! :eek:

the 18th dropsonde 13.6N 71.4W @ 20:28???


Yup. For some reason they didn't record anything at 965mb, or directly at the surface, but it was recorded at 964mb, so pretty much the surface.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2082 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:47 pm

extremely impressive radar... and from the last pass has even become more circular with a wider eyewall and look at the very deep convection in that hot tower..still deepening...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 791
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2083 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:47 pm

948mb the last pass
1 likes   

User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2084 Postby WmE » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:
KWT wrote:
Ntxw wrote:http://i65.tinypic.com/5a493c.jpg


Really looking great now, going to make a run at category-5 that is for sure, looking closer and closer to what Felix did near this location in 2007...


Looks a lot like Felix did around this same area.


Yeah close. As far as I can remember Felix had that very impressive stadium effect though.
0 likes   

ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 791
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2085 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm

ronyan wrote:948mb the last pass


I believe with 17 kt, is that correct?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2086 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm

ronyan wrote:948mb the last pass


they are not doing full eye passes only eyewall, pressure likely around 940 to 945mb ish
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145755
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2087 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm

Very impressive.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1173
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2088 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:49 pm

Officially Cat 4; winds of 140 mph!!

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
Last edited by caneseddy on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2089 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:49 pm

Now a cat 4 140 mph winds!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145755
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2090 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:50 pm

140 mph

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2091 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:50 pm

5 PM advisory has this at 120 kt. Cat 4. Hurricane Watch up for Jamaica.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2125
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2092 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:50 pm

Winds up to 140mph, pressure down to 949 mbars.

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Soonercane

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2093 Postby Soonercane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

I know someone flying into Kingston tomorrow and staying until Tuesday. What kind of impacts will they experience there most likely (obviously it depends on the track)?
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2094 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:extremely impressive radar... and from the last pass has even become more circular with a wider eyewall and look at the very deep convection in that hot tower..still deepening...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz


Great radar, but interestingly still not quite perfect!

Still plenty of room to improve on that presentation, which suggests to me a cat-5 is probably quite likely from this system...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2095 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

Welp, this is one of the most impressive bits of deepening we've seen in the Caribbean in a little while... very interested in seeing how strong this gets. Mitch's replacement is really showing its stuff.

I hate that the sun will set soon, I would really like to see some high definition visible images for a lot longer. If the surface winds are as high as reported, I'd not be shocked to see a Felix 2.0 by tomorrow. Wonder if they'll run into graupel in the eyewall of this one too? I would be very worried were I in Jamaica.
0 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1173
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2096 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

Still moving WSW at 9 mph...turn to WNW expected tomorrow night.
Last edited by caneseddy on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2097 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

New track slight bend to the west
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15448
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2098 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:http://i65.tinypic.com/5a493c.jpg


It has been a long time since we have seen this over the deep Caribbean.
This is the same general area that MH Felix '07 strengthen rapidly.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 022015.GIF
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145755
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2099 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Slight west move.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2100 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

caneseddy wrote:Still moving WSW at 9 mph...west turn not expected until tomorrow night.


yeah they had no choice but to adjust the track again given the continued motion not following the consensus ..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests