ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OntarioEggplant]

Still no outer eyewall in recon reports.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 13:25:48 N Lon : 71:42:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 945.0mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -14.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like 150 mph.. figured as much.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781994944089161728

[MississippiWx]

I see a 941.3mb reading with 30-35kt winds..

[smithtim]

I tink its a little to quick for an ERC. the last radar from the previous recon showed nothing at all indicating one. no outer wind max in the data either. we just have a contracting intensifying TC>

Aric, yep but def ongoing rapid intensification ( 55knts in < 24 hrs) and as we know right now all bet's are of he's gonna stop when he's good & done; right now the models don't mean sh*t I'm thinking circa gulf storms 2005 - let's hope not


Question for you my friend - send me an email if you get time - as you know I've done some work in past on rapid and this has got my curosity: what's the ocean dynamics in this area where Matthew past over during the last 24 hours? Is it constant deep / shallow or rapidly changing? Any sudden underwater cliffs etc? Could you recommend a reference where I could look up those details? reason why I ask is from what I understood the past hypothesis on rapid int needed quite shallow & hot ( i.e. Gulf like Wilma or Bahama like Andrew), but between this & hurricane Patricia doing it in the Pacific hmmmmm



Thanks you in advance and let's hope for the many people in Kingston towne that this beast of a storm doesn't do it!!!

[KWT]

Looks like 150 mph.. figured as much.

Yep, still time for recon passes to get what is needed for a category-5, earlier on the winds went up about 15-20mph between the start of the recon passes and the last pass through the eyewall, was really interesting to see.

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is still moving WSW

[1900hurricane]

Woah.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Looks to be continuing to move to the West - South west.

[drezee]

That is what I was hoping to not see. Matthew just made his first fist the in the NW quad. This is always a precursor to RI in developed systems. We haven't seen one in a while...I would say high end cat 4 at a minimum for overall peak intensity.

13 hrs later RI the entire time...Fist theory works every time

[Hamanard]

Matthew gained 55 kts in 24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781994944089161728

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[cycloneye]

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW WITH 150 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.90 INCHES

[tolakram]

Pressure still dropping.

[jlauderdal]

AccuRayno1 min
@JohnMoralesNBC6 .U are going to be very busy my friend. Still think the key is where NE trof splits into E gulf on Mon. Good luck my friend

[Hammy]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

[Yellow Evan]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

Barring a sudden ERC, very likely.

[Yellow Evan]

Highest raw ADT's ever for this generation of ADT.

[CrazyC83]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

I would expect it by dawn, if not by 11 pm.