ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Matthew is definitely a high end Category 4 tropical cyclone right now.. I am flat awestruck looking at this beast. Incredible! Catastrophic sutuation unfolding down in the Caribbean

[tatertawt24]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

I want to say it's almost certain, but 2016 is a trolling master and I can see Matthew holding out at 155mph just to drive us crazy. I think the bigger obstacle at this point would be having recon there at the right time.

[Kazmit]

My estimate is Cat 5 by 2am. Officially, it only needs to gain 7mph in order to get there. And considering the rate it has already been intensifying at, I'll say 155mph by 11pm, and 160 by 2am.

[jdjaguar]

Matthew is definitely a high end Category 4 tropical cyclone right now.. I am flat awestruck looking at this beast. Incredible! Catastrophic sutuation unfolding down in the Caribbean

starting to get nervous

have mom 84 in Vero barrier island

[Cyclenall]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

IMO 70%. Based on its track and the time of year, I thought Matthew had a decent chance to become one. I can't believe its been 9 years since the Atlantic had a CAT5...that's just mind-blowing. The basin has been turned off for so long now. I also don't believe this is going through an ERC or one is about to start (if it does it would be the type that doesn't impede strengthening).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

IMO 70%. Based on its track and the time of year, I thought Matthew had a decent chance to become one. I can't believe its been 9 years since the Atlantic had a CAT5...that's just mind-blowing. The basin has been turned off for so long now. I also don't believe this is going through an ERC or one is about to start (if it does it would be the type that doesn't impede strengthening).

Hate to say it but even if Matthew doesn't become a Category 5 before an ERC it has another chance near Jamaica/Cuba.

[hurricanes1234]

Matthew is definitely a high end Category 4 tropical cyclone right now.. I am flat awestruck looking at this beast. Incredible! Catastrophic sutuation unfolding down in the Caribbean

starting to get nervous

have mom 84 in Vero barrier island

Oh no.

Have you gotten in touch with her to see how she's making out down there?

[p1nheadlarry]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

I want to say it's almost certain, but 2016 is a trolling master and I can see Matthew holding out at 155mph just to drive us crazy. I think the bigger obstacle at this point would be having recon there at the right time.

Just like with Igor and with Joaquin (after it left the Bahamas)

[Nate-Gillson]

I should say this, if Matthew makes landfall as a major hurricane in Jamaica/Cuba (which is very likely), there is a 80% chance that Matthew will get retired next spring. 100% if Matthew makes landfall in the US.

Also, Matthew is pulling a Felix (Felix was in the same area as Matthew is in).

[NDG]

Just waking up from taking a nap, wow, not a good way to wake up to see the GFS keep trending westward and that Matthew is close to a Cat 5.

Intensity models messed up big time with this storm, just 24 hrs there was not one model that had Matthew more than a Cat 1 for this evening..

[tatertawt24]

Weird that what could be our first category 5 in 9 years is in the same area that our last cat 5 was.

[Jimsot]

The way this day has gone it might happen while the AF flies its mission.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Can't help but to wonder if there's something about the topography of the coast of Venezuela that causes hurricanes in the area of 70-74W and 13-14N to deepen 50-60 knots in 24 hours. Felix's intensification in 2007 was also equally as baffling. Remember, Matthew was a sheared TS yesterday morning and now it's nearly a Cat 5.

[Ntxw]

Weird that what could be our first category 5 in 9 years is in the same area that our last cat 5 was.

IMO it's easier to try for cat 5 below 20N and probably even better below or ~15N. We've just had so much difficult over the recent years of getting something to crank down that way.

[Nate-Gillson]

Can't help but to wonder if there's something about the topography of the coast of Venezuela that causes hurricanes in the area of 70-74W and 13-14N to deepen 50-60 knots in 24 hours. Felix's intensification in 2007 was also equally as baffling. Remember, Matthew was a sheared TS yesterday morning and now it's nearly a Cat 5.

Didn't Matthew develop a closed circulation yesterday morning?

[Hammy]

Can't help but to wonder if there's something about the topography of the coast of Venezuela that causes hurricanes in the area of 70-74W and 13-14N to deepen 50-60 knots in 24 hours. Felix's intensification in 2007 was also equally as baffling. Remember, Matthew was a sheared TS yesterday morning and now it's nearly a Cat 5.

Didn't Matthew develop a closed circulation yesterday morning?

Two days ago I believe--it became a hurricane yesterday.

[AJC3]

I've always believed that winds should be the main factor to rate the intensity of tropical cyclones and not the pressure.
If Matthew reaches category 5 but the pressure doesn't drop below 924 mbar, Igor would still be "most intense" by pressure, even Felix had a higher pressure than Igor (929 mbar).

In TC nomenclature, "intensity" has always been defined by minimum central pressure (MCP). "Strength" is defined by maximum sustained windspeed (MSW). No reason to change either.

[Nate-Gillson]

Can't help but to wonder if there's something about the topography of the coast of Venezuela that causes hurricanes in the area of 70-74W and 13-14N to deepen 50-60 knots in 24 hours. Felix's intensification in 2007 was also equally as baffling. Remember, Matthew was a sheared TS yesterday morning and now it's nearly a Cat 5.

Didn't Matthew develop a closed circulation yesterday morning?

Two days ago I believe--it became a hurricane yesterday.

Oh ok. Forgot about that. I seriously thought it formed yesterday...

[tatertawt24]

I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

[1900hurricane]

I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

If it warrants it, NHC will do it. They extrapolated an 872 mb pressure between recon missions with Patricia in the postseason just last year.